The current subdued phase of NEM over Tamil Nadu has started reflecting in the seasonal rainfall graph as more than 10 days have passed since the daily mean rainfall exceeded the normal for this time of the year. It is understatement this year’s Monsoon has been patchy in the interior areas of the state. The best spells have so far happened only in the coastal areas between Chennai & Nagappattinam.
While this lopsided rainfall pattern certainly is not helping the cause overall the deficit now stands at -17% which is the lowest we have reached since the onset of Northeast Monsoon onset on October 27th. Hopefully with models now indicating a possible revival of the active phase of Monsoon we can not only cover up the deficit but those areas still to see meaningful rains get their share too.
As things stand currently the low level winds are from Central India bringing the drier continental air. Technically still Easterlies these winds from the North do not bring widespread rains to the coastal areas thereby creating active monsoon conditions. Models indicate Moisture laden winds are likely to improve in the next few days under the influence of the Low that is expected to form in the next 24 – 48 hours near Andaman.
For the next couple of days the stretch between Marakkanam & Delta districts possibly stand a better chance of rains compared to Chennai & Surrounding areas. Isolated sharp spells of rains may occur though for Chennai too.