To err on the side of the caution is always the guiding principle for disaster communicators. The cone of uncertainty in cyclone forecasts is a classic example of probability in weather. A small change in dynamics could effectively change path of a cyclone. This could catch out people who may be unprepared if only a…
Tag: Chennai
North Coastal TN may see a 24 hours heavy rainfall event
It is always a tough call when to alert and how much to alert. During Cyclone Fengal as the models aligned tighter on a possible stall it became essential to raise the alert about the risks. The experience of a complex event like Cyclone Fengal is always in the back of the mind during subsequent…
Fresh Low likely to bring tense days to North Coastal TN
So far this Northeast Monsoon season Chennai and suburbs has been relatively stress free. Despite both IMD observatories recording more than 96 cms for the NEM season. Both Nungambakkam and Meenambakkam have recorded more than 175 cms for the year 2024. 2024 is now the 5th consecutive year where the average rainfall has been normal…
Late Season Surge by NEM 2024
Dhanushkodi Cyclone of 1964, Sri Lanka cyclone of 2000, Thane during 2011 all formed during 2nd fortnight of December. All of them have one other thing in common, these were La Nina years, which saw late season surge. Northeast Monsoon more often than not has seen late season surge during La Nina years. While there…
Bay LPA still struggling, but rains to return for TN
Rains are the elixir of life and no wonder Thiruvalluvar talked about rains immediately after offering salutations to GOD. During Cyclonic Storm Fengal we saw how rains could also create disaster through the flooding of the Then Pennai basin. As the Bay LPA makes slow progress we are potentially going to see how rains may…