Another Stormy Evening ahead for Interior South India

The thunderstorms continue unabated over the interior places of South India as moderate to heavy rains were recorded in a few places of Tamil Nadu.  Kallakurichi in Villupuram district recorded a second straight 8 cm day while accumulating more than 23 cms since the turn of October.  Parts of Chennai recorded light overnight rains as the IMD AWS in Nungambakkam recorded 7 mm with all of them coming around early morning 2 AM

With atmospheric conditions continuing to be unstable as the Indian sub continent gets ready for the seasonal change thunderstorms have been thriving in South India for the past week or so.  Today also is going to be no different with the interior places of Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Telangana region enjoying a stormy evening along with parts of Tamil Nadu in South India  Maharashtra has also been seeing thunderstorms under the withdrawal syndrome of Southwest Monsoon

As far as Tamil Nadu goes once again the best places are the ones between 50 – 100 kms from the coast with conducive conditions prevailing for the districts of Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and parts of Villupuram as well.  Chennai & other coastal areas will require a fair bit of luck from the wind pattern to get benefit out of these storms as under the effect of the circulation pseudo Easterlies will be prevailing over many parts of Coastal Tamil Nadu.  Nevertheless remnant moisture could give a spell or two of sharp showers early morning in a few areas.

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  • Leo Michaelraj
  • Leo Michaelraj

    Drizzling here

  • Sharp showers @ Kilpauk

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Storms to west

    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      Few places inside the city should be getting rain showers

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Performance of models were very worser than 2k16..last year was bit ok

  • sriram

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e14a0d3a3c1fa9d57431ae13711c9a58f8bf89c628616949c85a3d5b131e3c7f.jpg
    This is cyclone phet in 2010 which followed rarest of rare tracks with two landfall points of oman and pakistan..

  • Natarajan

    GFS predicts one monstrous typhoon in West Pacific in the coming week phillipines may just be spared

  • barath rakesh
  • SrikanthK

    Good intense storms around Harur

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Still the temperature is around 30. Very warm night

  • ~Prince~
    • sriram

      innum konjam irakkam kaatunga..

    • Natarajan

      GFS shows the west Pacific typhoon moving towards Japan and north west Pacific

    • Malakrishnasamy

      What a prediction??
      very lengthy path…
      If this happens means no words to explain the expertise of the person.

      • Natarajan

        It will mostly curve North east without touching phillipines

        • Malakrishnasamy

          Even for our own bay disturbance is very tough to predict the landfall location. But it shows a system from very distance …

  • sriram
    • Leo Michaelraj

      But not for us

      • sriram

        We ll get some..

    • SrikanthK

      Both chakrams unlikely happen with the intensity shown in the map

  • barath rakesh

    Parthanin vanilai says nem onset jumping 3 week to 4 week

    • sriram

      Till oct 27,its ok

      • barath rakesh

        May be

      • barath rakesh

        But another system also go to odisa katham katham

        • Leo Michaelraj

          yes it has happened during 2013

    • SrikanthK

      Some one here posted about onset by 15th a few days back isn’t it

      • barath rakesh

        Yes but iam not

  • SrikanthK

    Northwest interior TN picking up whatever available this thunderstorms season

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Continues to enjoy the rains

  • SrikanthK
  • Venkatesh

    Heard some rumors saying Bangalore and Hyderabad is going to her heavy to very heavy rainnfal from today night from 8pm.pla don’t trust the msg and pls don’t forward to others

    • sudar san

      another whatsapp mischief?

      • Venkatesh

        Yes in my fb page my relative posted the same..thats y I m mentioning here

    • Ganesh R

      We have been receiving that message for last 10 days here in BLR. No University in the world has produced more Doctors, Metrologists, Economists and other experts than Facebook, WhatsApp in the last few years. 🙂

  • SrikanthK

    One good thing being busy with travels. Will not be seeing the models every hour to wonder what’s happening

    • sudar san

      really confusing me seeing the models

      • SrikanthK

        I suggest start seeing models when Southwest monsoon starts to withdrawing again

        • sudar san

          i shall wait till 15th when your inference comes out here

          • SrikanthK

            If not 15th it will be 16th

      • Venkatesh

        Do trace models after withdrawal of swm

        • sudar san

          is withdrawal of swm getting delayed?

          • Venkatesh

            Yes.further withdrawal may start early next week.

      • Natarajan

        You can use models for just inference to get some picture. Actually for system formation,landfall and all model consensus is needed i.e GFS,ECM,ukmet etc should be in general agreement. Once that period nears and system forms we can look out for landfall places, path, wind shear(for strong systems) etc

      • Natarajan

        For system formation like LPA,D/DD,cyclone etc.. if there is a general consensus and if it’s picked in many model runs,there is good probability of it happening

      • Natarajan

        Climatology also is a major factor

  • sriram
    • Leo Michaelraj

      yes looking good

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Latest gfs picking trough of low on Oct 25 off TN coast with one more system trying to enter Andaman.. Too too long to go.. But it is picking something very good

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Only GFS is favorable

      • anandha kannan@svks

        This is the first run they are showing
        .if they are going to get right with wpac system, this is likely to happen

    • SrikanthK

      You must be joking 15 days from now??

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Ha ha..😛 .models are joke then..

  • Leo Michaelraj
    • SrikanthK

      Singing separately i think

      • Leo Michaelraj

        This is GFS model

  • Ramasamy Prs

    Lightning and thunder to the north west of our village near kangeyam.may be raining in nearby areas.

    • SrikanthK

      Super hopefully some rains for you as well

      • Ramasamy Prs

        Will be happy if it happens sir.

  • SrikanthK

    Today also 50-100 kms syndrome happening

  • ~Prince~
  • Natarajan

    Ultimate was GFS showing cyclone landfall in north TN in sept across many runs. Not even a UAC formed in SW bay
    ECM and ukmet were showing lpa bands over Chennai from lpa in West central bay towards end of sept. Nothing materialised

    • SrikanthK

      That cyclone was a non starter

  • Natarajan

    ECM in one run was actually showing land depression in Raj and then in West up in Oct 1st week. God knows where land depression went

  • Natarajan

    Models have been doing bit badly since sept even in short range. They were showing some big TS rains for entire north coastal TN . After 5th nothing happened

  • sriram
    • SrikanthK

      It might send some pulse into bay

  • sriram
    • SrikanthK

      He jumped on the below normal bandwagon very early

      • Silent_Observer@Mylai/Santhome

        Yes, he has been consistent on this!

        • narayanan_ky

          As per accuweather chennai will get 630 mm overall with october(287mm) and november(343mm).
          As we have already got 100 mm they estimate 530 mm more.

          • sriram

            From where yu got this data

    • narayanan_ky

      Jason being famous among Chennaites from 2015 must have been pestered a lot asking for forecast ..

      • sriram

        Yes..but he ll also do lots of bultis..

        • narayanan_ky

          yes he tells based on model consensus only so any change in them he will also change

    • Natarajan

      Safe reply ‘near to below normal’. Tomorrow no one should question him if its either way 🙂

      • sriram

        He is working for accuweather which follows ecmwf..so he ll change according to that model i thnk..

      • He knows better how Chennai Bloggers will scold him, if his forecast becomes wrong, so he is replying in safer side.

    • Vignesh

      “Models” evvazhi , Makkal Avvazhi.

  • SrikanthK

    Taken to the North of Kolkata around 40 kms away. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad111cdfb49a1fee9da2b2085259feccf778df1cb7de8860af8bd4dc77ca1728.jpg interesting experience traveling in a suburban train. Being the land of red there is only second class in the train unlike elsewhere in the country

    • narayanan_ky

      Yes must be a different feeling i think cost of living also must be lesser as compared to other cities.

  • SrikanthK

    A couple of pointers from my side
    1. Transition system for sure going to happen around East Bay.
    2. Easterlies unlikely before the system and possibly unlikely in the next 7 days
    3. Onset is a different thing all together

    • Silent_Observer@Mylai/Santhome

      When Chennai can expect the next spell of rains??

      • SrikanthK

        We might continue to get the stray showers but widespread spell unlikely till weekend I think

        • Leo Michaelraj

          GFS showing some rains from 13th onwards

  • ~Prince~

    What does onset rains means??
    Rains caused by easterlies or by system moving towards TN making the NEM onset ??

    • Natarajan

      Criteria for Declaring Onset of Northeast Monsoon
      For declaring onset of Northeast Monsoon following criteria may be
      considered:
      (1) Withdrawal of south west Monsoon upto 15º N.
      (2) Onset of persistent surface easterlies over Tamil Nadu coast.
      (3) Depth of easterlies upto 850 hPa over Tamil Nadu coast.
      (4) Fairly widespread rainfall over the coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas.
      (5) Onset is not to be declared before 10th October even, if the conditions
      described above exist.

    • Natarajan

      The following is as per imd and taken from their website

  • sriram
    • narayanan_ky

      First time hearing the word retreating monsoon in his report so finally some signs of NEM stage emerging.

    • Natarajan

      He has safely marked 70% of Bob 🙂

      • Vignesh

        Ha ha…

  • SrikanthK

    ECMWF ensembles still not yet showing consistent pattern for the cyclone

    • Natarajan

      What you said about models in transition period is true

  • SrikanthK

    With NEM around the corner we will soon have a lot of experts giving their opinion on onset, performance, cyclone tracks and what not. Hopefully people are equipped to sieve the good from the bad

    • Natarajan

      Yes 🙂 if one rains come, WhatsApp rumors will asual start as though Chennai is the confluence point of all cyclones in the world

    • Natarajan

      Already onset dates finalized by some in Facebook and twitter 🙂

      • SrikanthK

        Now we will start getting number of cyclones to hit and time frames

  • Leo Michaelraj
  • Venkatesh

    Gud cumulombinus activity seen here in hyderabad

    • SrikanthK

      Good day of rains possible

      • Venkatesh

        Yes low level convergence seen early in noon.somewhere seen passing drizzled in ameerpet

  • barath rakesh
  • barath rakesh

    Ncmrwf shows system stalled in chennai 3 days heavy rain also

    • Natarajan

      Climatology wise rarely have strong system forming in Oct came near TN
      Especially the ones forming in Andaman sea can be safely ruled out
      Nilam was an exception. But it formed out of strong convection/lpa over south east bay off srilanka and not andaman sea

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Happy to hear this

  • SrikanthK

    Rain or sun the humidity never goes away from Kolkata

    • narayanan_ky

      ya even the aussie cricketers suffered a lot due to humidity there.

  • SrikanthK

    At this time of the year it always makes sense to read between the lines as far as model outputs go

    • Natarajan

      I would be more than happy to see strong systems in North bay than get onset through half baked systems like kyant

  • Natarajan

    It’s better to have cyclone or strong system in North or north east bay in Oct before easterlies set in.it is far far better than north moving strong cyclones like 2007,2008 in November after onset

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    Kolkata airport apron still showing some bit of water logging. Murky sunshine as of now

  • Vignesh
  • Natarajan

    Burma’s Arkan coast may be getting even more rains than Indian west coast. Entire SWM season+October post SWM systems

  • Natarajan

    North east bay already got two cyclones this summer – cyclone maruthaa and cyclone mora. Both ecmwf and GFS showing another cyclone in ne bay but may not make landfall in burma

  • A V Subramanian

    Hopefully things turn positive and we see wide spread rains across TN, praying for some luck and complete surprise that defy models and charts

    • Vignesh

      NEM – Strictly no rules ☺

  • sriram

    In 1992 & 2000,the nem onset date is on november 2..1992 had excess nem & 2000 is deficit..

    • ~Prince~

      In 2015 also we got actual monsoon rains from November only

  • sriram
  • sriram
    • SrikanthK

      Ithuvum kadanthu pogum

  • sriram

    Now cfs showing a big zero for october..nem onset in november only

    • A V Subramanian

      Will there be TS rains for Chennai at least till then or even that will go missing!!

      • Vignesh

        After 2-3 days westerlies might pick up , then our chance is good

      • Malakrishnasamy

        At least we need TS over TN until proper onset.
        We need widespread activity…as of now things look ok, but an empty October might make the situation worst.
        Hope there will be rains throughout October..

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Ecmwf and gfs joining together and taking the Andaman circulation to the ne bob as a weak cyclone

    • anandha kannan@svks

      Sri anna was spot on regarding this:)

      • SrikanthK

        Sila pala varusham nondu noola ponathu engalukku theriyathu

        • anandha kannan@svks

          Ha ha😂😂…seems gfs won the game..from Oct 1 onwards, showing no signs of easterlies in their 384 run hr frame

          • SrikanthK

            Just wait and watch. Do not react to anything beyond 5 days

            • anandha kannan@svks

              Okay… 😀

  • SrikanthK
  • Leo Michaelraj
    • SrikanthK

      There is going to be a transition cyclone no second thoughts

      • Selvakumar(Raijin)

        Both ECMWF and GFS are coming into agreement on transition system moving north

  • SrikanthK

    It appears November may not be as bad as expected if MJO has behaved the past couple of month in reality compared to forecast

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)
  • Thanga Muthu

    I like the way you mention withdrawal syndrome.more like medical terminology.

    • SrikanthK

      Sometimes we get the luxury to indulge in word play isn’t it

      • Thanga Muthu

        Thanks Sri.those kind of words add more flavour to the point mentioned