It is more than three weeks since Southwest Monsoon started over the Indian Sub Continent but the storage levels over most dams & reservoirs of Tamil Nadu & the Cauvery Basin continue to be grim with no appreciable progress so far. More on that a little later as we quickly note the progress of Southwest Monsoon and the rainfall prospects for the day.
Southwest Monsoon has made some marginal progress over East India as it has further advanced into remaining parts of Chhattisgarh & Jharkhand some more parts of Vidharba & Bihar, some parts of East Madhya Pradesh. The Arabian Sea Branch continues to remain in a stalled manner with no progress what so ever for almost two weeks now.
Today we are likely to see isolated thunderstorms over parts of Tamil Nadu with possibly few places in South TN expected to see some rains like yesterday. One or two places in the interiors to the West of Chennai could also see convective thunderstorms develop some of which could move towards the coast giving some rainfall possibilities to coastal TN. Overall though the rains are expected to ease over the East Coast as models indicate monsoon to strengthen over the West Coast.
As mentioned in the opening lines of today’s post, despite Monsoon almost 3 weeks old there has been no visible improvement in either the Cauvery Basin dams or other important dams that benefit directly from Southwest Monsoon. While a case for panic is not necessary as of now with still almost 3 months of Monsoon left. But it appears expecting the dams to fill up soon would be futile. With things on the monsoon front expected to pick up in the coming days hopefully when we put out these numbers once again possibly around July 1st week things should show some progress.
But a couple of points that is worth pondering about though. In this context it would possibly make sense for the farming community to refrain from taking up agriculture activities especially those who depend on river fed irrigation. Similarly it would possibly make sense for the Government to focus on improving storage rather than try to increase discharge levels matching with inflow. Sacrificing one season for the sake of bringing back long term benefits should be the key.