Southwest Monsoon 2017 has been stuttering & pottering along so far like a broken down car on an Autobahn frequently stopping and stalling along the way. The next few days is likely to be the first widespread active Monsoon spell for the West Coast under the influence of the off shore trough that now runs from South Gujarat to Kerala. In all probability places like Mumbai could see its first monsoon spell which typically brings the city to standstill before the Mumbai spirit takes over.
After a lot of efforts Southwest Monsoon has finally touched the border of Uttar Pradesh almost running behind by 10 days as many parts of South Gujarat have finally seen monsoon onset as well. Things look good for further progress in the West Coast and Central Indian areas over the next day or two while West Bihar will come under monsoon possibly by early next week.
Closer home Villupuram & Salem districts recorded good rains during the evening while parts of South Chennai and suburbs recorded some light to moderate rains in many places from thunderstorms moving in from the interiors. In a close miss for Chennai the bulk of the thunderstorms that formed around the Madanapallee / Chittor region did not dip enough taking them about 50 kms to the North of Chennai.
As mentioned in our opening remarks Southwest Monsoon, till now in a subdued phase, is likely to see its first active phase for West Coast with heavy spells of rains expected along the coast & Ghats all the way from Kerala till South Gujarat. A few places in the Western Ghats could see very heavy rains as well under the active monsoon surge partially aided by the developing Low Pressure Area in North Bay.
A few places in Nilgiris, Tirunelveli & Kanyakumari particularly along the Western Ghats could see heavy rains with Nilgiris district in line for some heavy rains over the next couple of days and possible threat of landslides exist in these places.
With Westerlies expected to be very strong the rains are expected ease over most parts of East Coast along Tamil Nadu & South AP. The trigger provided by sea breeze is likely to be absent with models indicating a poor sea breeze condition over the next day or two for Coastal TN.