The Rains most of Tamil Nadu is eagerly expecting and patiently waiting for could make a return today in the coastal areas under the influence of the Low Pressure Area off the coast of Sri Lanka. As we have been mentioning for the past couple of days, the low Level winds that have been mostly from North is now expected to change into more Easterlies bringing in moisture from the Bay. This is a key ingredient for the rains to return back for Coastal Tamil Nadu.
As the Easterlies streamline more slowly they will start moving further inland bringing in some of the interior areas of South TN under a spell or two of rains over the course next couple of days. As the Low Pressure moves further West getting closer to the coast of Sri Lanka the rain bands could move inland along with it. Today we are likely to see one or two places in the coastal areas between Vedaranyam & Chennai get moderate to heavy thunderstorms as some of the places could fall under the convergence effect from the withdrawing Northerlies and the incoming Easterlies.
On a slightly larger scale as is the case most of the times “Bay of Bengal” is a complex weather monster which regularly creates issues for models in terms of consistency. Another complex scenario is currently evolving with a broad circulation now present between Sri Lanka and Malay Peninsula. While we already have a LPA there is another potential vortex developing slightly further East which is going to create a possible “Competing Dynamics”.
Depending on which monster becomes dominant the rainfall pattern will change. In the current context it would make sense to keep a close watch on real time conditions rather than look long term. There is likely to be more twists and turns over the next week or so. Fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride.