After non stop rains over Coastal Tamil Nadu for nearly 10 days since last Sunday we could possibly look forward to a quiet day allowing some respite and for the schools to get back to normal. Whether this break will be for a couple of days or much longer is going to depend on how things evolve on a slightly larger scale which involves disturbances spread from Sri Lanka to South China Sea.
With the first active phase of Northeast Monsoon nearing its completion its time to take stock of the scorecard for the IMD stations across Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry. The last few days of rains have certainly tilted the scales compared to when we last updated this nearly a fortnight back. Except for 5 stations rest of all the IMD stations are relatively comfortable in terms of the annual rainfall for the year 2017. The big worry is Kanyakumari & Thootukudi which are still facing a stiff target to get to normal state for the year
The early part of the day is likely to see rains continue over the Coastal areas with places like Delta, North Coastal areas seeing light to moderate spells with occasional heavy spells in a few areas. Models indicate rains to ease after mid day with a relatively quiet day after that. Tomorrow we could see rains slow down going by what models are estimating.
Things are getting fluid as we mentioned in the opening remarks of this post with some interplay expected between the existing disturbance off Sri Lanka and the incoming one from South China Sea. Most models are going with the incoming disturbance picking up monsoon dynamics thereby reducing the rainfall prospects for Tamil Nadu. When one observes real time the current disturbance is not as intense as the models originally estimated it will it reorganize the monsoon dynamics we will get some clarity in about 24 – 36 hours when the disturbance moves closer to Bay of Bengal