Once again in order to give early head start to the farming community we are putting out an early post about possible rains over many areas of South India next week. With Numerical Models consistent on the cause and effect of these rains the probability is fairly high for this event next week.
The rains are likely to happen on two accounts, the coastal areas benefiting from the influence of returning Easterly influence from 6th February, while the interior areas are likely to benefit from the wind instability triggered by collision of Westerlies & Easterlies of different masses. While coastal areas are likely to see light to moderate spells the heavier spells are likely to happen in the interior areas of the region.
The rains are likely to peak on 7th & 8th of February with coastal areas south of Puducherry better placed to benefit from these showers while the places along the Western Ghats are ideally placed to witness the heavier thunderstorms. Interior areas of Tamil Nadu along with South Interior Karnataka & most of Kerala is likely to benefit from these thunderstorms. The rains are likely to fade from possibly 9th of February though some isolated rains might continue in the Western parts of Peninsular India upto 14N latitude.
Chance for any major rainfall activity for Chennai is less as of now with most likely light early morning rains possible for Chennai & Suburbs during this period.