Models struggle against Bay Low Pressure

The Bay Low Pressure continues to keep weather watchers on tenterhooks without following the scripts written by weather models as well.  Along with its bigger cousin Cyclone Ockhi it has been a nightmare week for both models and weather watchers.  Cyclone Ockhi continues to defy predictions moving North almost reaching Mumbai latitude intact as a cyclone in what could be possibly the rarest case for a December Cyclone.

While models estimate Cyclone Ockhi to lose some intensity and move as a Depression towards the Gujarat coast keeping in trend so far it would not be a surprise if it ends up making landfall as a marginal cyclone bringing heavy rains to North Coastal Maharashtra and adjoining areas of South Gujarat.  In the next 24 hours we could possibly see Cyclone Ockhi make a historical landfall.

Coming to the smaller cousin which is behaving as notoriously as Cyclone Ockhi it is moving in a nearly East to West direction and located roughly 200 kms to the South of Andaman Islands.  While the model estimates were for this Low Pressure to be around West of Great Nicobar Island it is actually South of model estimates by nearly 250 kms.  Models will continue to struggle for the right location until a bit of consolidation happens.  This is likely to influence the tracks of Models in the coming days.

Similarly the low pressure has been moving more West than Northwest as estimated by the due to the poor consolidation so far.  Until it intensifies it will continue to move West. There are a couple of things going for the Well Marked Low, it is at a very good region both in terms of Atmosphere & Ocean.  This will help it consolidate into a possible depression and we can start seeing better convection build.

Will the West Movement finally turn beneficial to Tamil Nadu?? Fingers Crossed