This year’s Kathiri has been so far subdued over Tamil Nadu with the first fortnight nearly coming to an end. Even the interior areas have so far been spared of the harsh summer conditions that is normally seen during the Kathiri period. With thunderstorms fairly active since the start of May as mentioned in our post a couple of days back the effects of summer has been subdued too.
Numerical Models indicate today also most of Tamil Nadu to see near normal or slightly below normal temperatures during the afternoon. In particular places in North Tamil Nadu could be seeing temperatures that may be nearly 2 / 3°C below normal for this time of the year. Chennai Nungambakkam recorded only 35°C and today also we could see the max temperatures stay around 36°C.
In our post dated May 4th 2018 we had mentioned about the possibility of a subdued start to the first fortnight of Kathiriye. The last 10 days temperature anomalies does indicate almost all of Tamil Nadu seeing temperatures that have been a couple of degrees below normal.
On the thunderstorm front the wind charts indicate a Mid Tropospheric Wind instability running around 12N latitude horizontally. A couple of days back similar conditions brought moderate to heavy Thunderstorms around Salem, Namakkal and parts of Erode districts. Tiruchengodu recorded 7 cm from the evening spells of rain. Today this zone of instability could favour a few places in North Tamil Nadu in particular around the interiors. The storms could be slow moving hence those areas that see thunderstorm develop could see moderate to heavy spells.
Parts of South Tamil Nadu will once again benefit from rains along with Kerala. The areas around Madurai could benefit from afternoon Thunderstorms brought by convective activity due to day time heating.