Isolated thunderstorms to continue in Tamil Nadu

Though Isolated thunderstorms has been continuing in Tamil Nadu for the past couple of days,  the spatial spread has come down.  Yesterday saw parts of Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore districts record good rains in North Tamil Nadu.  Down South Madurai, Pudukottai districts recorded moderate rains in a few places.  The highlights of yesterday include Vrinchipuram in Vellore recorded 10 cms & Kallakurichi which recorded 8 cms.

In the meanwhile up in the North Bay a well marked Low Pressure area persisting off the coast of West Bengal / Bangladesh is expected to keep the Southwest Monsoon dynamics going for a few more days.  The influence of this monsoon low is expected to prevail possibly up to Wednesday / Thursday post which we will start to see the withdrawal process pick up once again.

The multiple circulations over many parts of the Indian Sub Continent continues to make it conducive conditions for thunderstorms to thrive.  With mid level Easterlies firmly in place Mumbai has been receiving thundershowers for the last couple of days a typical withdrawal phenomenon.  This is expected to continue today as well with one or two places in Maharashtra / Telangana / Interior Karnataka seeing heavy spells of rains.

As far as Tamil Nadu goes we could possibly see some isolated thunderstorms develop around 50 – 100 kms from the coast similar to the areas that has been getting the rains for the past couple of days.  One or two places could get heavy spells at times.

  • New Post Updated http://wp.me/p6Y3od-1Cn

  • SrikanthK

    One or two places in ECR should be getting some rains

  • SrikanthK

    Storms either go south of chennai or North of chennai

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Ecm expecting cyclone off north bay in latest run

  • ~Prince~

    Storms in west moving east

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Vellore and its surrounding getting good rains

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Is the storms moving in from the west

    • Natarajan

      Mid level steering is south-southWesterly. Doubtful if it will reach us

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Wow latest long range forecasting models showing some good rains happening in stn and deltas predominantly In nov:)

  • Siddharth

    just now rains started in pondy

  • sriram

    If there is cyclone or heavy rains this december,All ppl ll blame our late tamilnadu cm..😅

    • Natarajan

      Yeah. Vardah was also told like that :). It’s landfall happened just one week after her passing away. now on anything that happens in Dec will be attributed to her 🙂

  • sriram

    From 2015,Every year december is memorable one for chennai..I thnk this year also it ll be..who knows we can get excess december..

    • Natarajan

      In many years December has been way below normal too. Chennai got below normal in these years: 2002,2003,2004,2008,2011,2012,2013
      Also Dec average for chennai is just around 15 cms.

      • sudar san

        how much is the nov average for chennai

        • Natarajan

          Guess it’s around 40-45 cms

        • Natarajan

          Nov has been below par this decade. 2011,2015 only were good.2012,2016 were very worst

          • sudar san

            hoping for a bountiful november this year

            • Natarajan

              Yes. I think this Nov may have the active phase of NEM unlike 2016

          • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

            Even 2014 was decent!!

            • Natarajan

              2014 Nov was bit bad. Chennai got around 18 cms only

      • sriram

        Most of the times it ll be below normal right..there ll be more rains in s.tn..But dec is always known for disaster..what is the link i dono..tsunami in 2004 dec..floods in 2015 dec..A rare cyclone in 2016 dec..

        • Natarajan

          Reg. 2015 Dec 1st, it was actually preceded by a record breaking November. Deepavali deep depression and Nov 15th well marked low simply dumped gargantuan amounts of rain. On dec1st the already full lakes and the overly saturated ground couldn’t really take it anymore

          In 2016, you can say the active phase of NEM was completely in December unlike any previous year and we got rains mainly from cyclones (NADA and vardah)

  • SrikanthK

    Next few days the NEM fever will touch new heights

    • sriram cr

      Why?

    • Natarajan

      I think it’s better to keep expectations quite low considering very active wpac. In the short term even the possible system shown by models in bay may drift away

  • Ganesh R

    Massive lightening and thunder in South/Eastern horizons of BLR. But no rains…..

    • SrikanthK

      Some parts getting rains I think

  • Ganesh R

    How a system in Dec saved the NEM in 1983…..
    https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/12-1983/ws-432790.html

    • SrikanthK

      Once again proves the importance of tropical disturbance for NEM

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Some storms near ARK

    • SrikanthK

      Storms not wanting to come into Tamil Nadu

      • Take diversion until the 13th. GFS optimistic for some good rains on Friday the 13th..

  • ~Prince~
  • ~Prince~
  • SrikanthK

    Seasonal outlooks are all large scale maps which should be used for regional inferences. These are of lower resolution compared to short term numerical outputs

  • SrikanthK

    South Interior Karnataka special today

    • Leo Michaelraj

      yes the storms are almost stationary

  • sriram

    A depression has been formed in bloggers mind after seeing all model runs..This may further intensify into deep depression in further model runs.This may result in polambals of bloggers like “Nem is never existing monsoon daww” “2016 repeat daww” “severe water crisis for 2018 daww”..😆

  • Venkatesh

    @Sri when is ur NEM update..?

    • Venkatesh

      I hope almost confused

    • SrikanthK

      Have promised some one to give on 14th so that we will carry in our blog simultaneously on 15th. Travelling till Saturday so looks tight

      • Venkatesh

        Ok

      • Siddhart(Poonamallee)

        Hope you would give a favourable forecast for rain!!

        • SrikanthK

          Would love to

  • Venkatesh

    Heavily lightning on d way at Naidupet

    • SrikanthK

      Late running Charminar is it?

      • Venkatesh

        Yes 30 Min late

        • SrikanthK

          Usual story never seen it reach Sulurpet & Naidupet on time from Chennai

          • Venkatesh

            Yes.thats y I hate to travel in charminar.what to do I didn’t get tkt in express

    • Venkatesh

      As the TS seen in radar with in another 30 Min it’s going to pound

  • SrikanthK

    Hopefully in the days to come with the help of Kachelmann hoping to have a South India Monthly Anomaly from ECMWF, If his team is able to crack it then will go a long way in the coming days to understand seasonal variations

  • barath rakesh
    • sriram

      Super

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Intense storms in the interiors

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Will it move towards the coast

      • Vignesh

        No chance . Surely will miss

        • Leo Michaelraj

          yes winds are quite variable

          • Vignesh

            Almost calm above 1.8 km

            • Leo Michaelraj

              yes storms not moving

  • aman @ Guduvanchery

    SW Monsoon rains gradually come down as the low pressure area in north bay weakens and move north. A low pressure system in eastern bay near Andhaman will take root around 14th of this month and will be our NEM onset system this will move NW. Heavy widespread rains for TN will start based on the system movement and strengthening.

    • Natarajan

      Will this be a pre NEM system than a NEM onset lpa? Usually the ones that form in andaman sea in Oct move north westwards to Orissa north ap coasts

      • Natarajan

        We have seen that in most cases in October before NEM onset

  • SrikanthK

    ECMWF monthlies for Nov & Dec thanks to Kachelmann
    https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/917355486596468737

    • sriram cr

      how is november ?

      • Leo Michaelraj

        Below normal precipitation

        • sriram cr

          how much below normal ? lets say if november average for TN is 25cm how much we will get ?

          • Leo Michaelraj

            18-20 cm I think

            • sriram cr

              if october is above normal and november gives 20cm, I think we will sail thru this year.

          • SrikanthK

            We will have to use this as a trend rather than seeing it with absolute numbers

            • sriram cr

              sorry if that was a wrong question, just trying to understand the charts.

              • SrikanthK

                No question is wrong, please dont mind shooting questions. I cant talk for others but at least thats how I have learnt what ever little I know of weather

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Overall slightly below normal NEM

      • Venkatesh

        I am confident 50 to 60 percent for coastal.of December IOD favours we are lucky to get 80 percent through Lpa

    • Vignesh

      Central & North India showing above normal rains especially at December. Is it possible?

      • SrikanthK

        Western disturbance could be the reason

    • narayanan_ky

      November is almost -30 to -40% lower which is actually worrisome even december is -10% to -15% for chennai coastal upto pondy as per these charts….only solace it will be better than 2016..

    • anandha kannan@svks

      Looks far better for stn..

    • anandha kannan@svks

      Nov and Dec looks near normal for stn..

    • anandha kannan@svks

      Actually bro.. This anomaly showed worse sep for west coast

  • barath rakesh

    I think poama script On going above normal oct

  • SrikanthK

    ECMWF Ensembles predominantly taking the disturbance north of 15 N

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Is it after the onset

      • SrikanthK

        Lets see still lot of divergence in the timing

  • barath rakesh
  • barath rakesh
  • Leo Michaelraj
  • SrikanthK

    32.8 even now, what a day so far since midnight

  • SrikanthK

    It seems the ECMWF monthlies are not completed yet, hopefully by late evening we should get it

  • barath rakesh

    Pfs says this year oct system only for ntn-sap

    • Natarajan

      If it has to travel west it has to be steered by mid level ridge . With SWM dynamics still in play over central India don’t know if ridge can form soon

    • aman @ Guduvanchery

      whats pfs?

    • aman @ Guduvanchery

      mostly Oct even many Nov systems travel NW. but rains depends on many other factors, so with SAP system, some times STN could benefit a lot in terms of rains.

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Yes 🙂

    • SrikanthK

      Without knowing the genesis it’s futile to estimate landfall

  • barath rakesh

    Very strong ridge in india coming days then upcoming system not move nw direction

    • Natarajan

      For that strong hpa has to develop in central India. Not sure of it can form in October. Possible in Nov and dec

      • barath rakesh

        Latest ecm chart shows
        strong arabian ridge play

        • Natarajan

          Interesting. All mysteries will start unraveling next week 🙂

      • SrikanthK

        October of too early for that

        • Natarajan

          Yes. May be in Nov. This coincides with winter in North and central India

  • barath rakesh

    Latest ecmwf predicted nem onset oct 19

  • ~Prince~
    • narayanan_ky

      Looks like the prediction is expecting laila like systems thereby coast will get touched but will curve away after that.

    • SrikanthK

      Let’s see we will know at least the onset prospects soon

      • Natarajan

        To be honest I seriously doubt if above normal NEM is possible. Models at least get the anamoly right. Nov anamoly is not good. Also with such high SST in wpac and unsupportive mjo don’t know if it’s possible. Adding to it is one or two strong systems to north bay

        • SrikanthK

          Very rarely NEM survives a bad November

          • anandha kannan@svks

            Any inference on latest ecm monthlies Anna?

            • SrikanthK

              Will share once I reach home

              • anandha kannan@svks

                Okay anna..

          • Natarajan

            Exactly.

      • Natarajan

        Also we can’t trust pulses from SCS till mid Nov. Very high chances of moving to north bay

  • aman @ Guduvanchery

    South TN and Srilanka will get some medium Isolated rains in the next two days and also possible rains for Coastal TN.

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    ♦   The depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal   moved west-
    northwestwards with a speed of about 15 kmph in past 3 hours. It intensified into a deep depression
    and lies centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 09th October, 2017  over Gangetic West Bengal near
    Latitude 22.5°N and Longitude 88.4°E, close to  Kolkata. The system is very likely to move slowly
    westnorthwestwards initially during next 24 hours and move northwestwards thereafter.

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Lot of low level clouds seen around east of sivakasi

  • SrikanthK
    • Silent_Observer@Mylai/Santhome

      why it won’t trigger easterlies?

      • SrikanthK

        If this one had formed slightly lower it could have dragged a bit of Easterlies from South China sea.

  • Siva prakash(CBE,Sulur)
    • SrikanthK

      Elongated trough with a possibility of a circulation developing in either side.

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Expecting Andaman one to get the life in 240 hrs

    • Natarajan

      If SCS system strengthens to tropical storm/typhoon it won’t allow bay to strengthen. There is good chance of typhoon/TS hitting Philippines and further into SCS because of high SST in West Pacific. Also Mjo is in maritime/wpac which makes this very favourable

      • SrikanthK

        It’s all interlinked which is why model outputs also is likely to change time to time

        • anandha kannan@svks

          As per climatology /favorable factors, Andaman may hold upper hand am I right bro?

          • SrikanthK

            Yes better chance closer to Andaman

  • sriram cr

    super confusion around NEM performance !

    Just to give a perspective, little while ago Srikanth reported rainfall data for 24 observatories till september end (for TN ). That data also had what is the balance rainfall needed to reach normal category.
    with good SWM rains, places like vellore, coimbatore are already in normal category and will end up in excess.
    even in a worst case scenario with just 50% of NEM rains the situation looks far better (please see below) . as experts always say one good system can change the total scene. I could only see only positive signs so, let us be happy with what nature has in store for us

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c718d87601fa4356eb991c4915151a675657eeae583178cd29a8934c7512765.png

    PS: I voted for… what panic, we will see excess. 🙂

    • Natarajan

      NEM is synoptic driven and hit or miss can turn the tables unlike SWM. Though models can foresee anamoly it’s not possible to narrow down to precip range. We have seen that in many years before especially in 2007,2008,2012,2013,2016

    • Natarajan

      Some years have been worst for Chennai but good for TN like 1999,2003. So it’s bit tricky as it depends on system formation,path,landfall etc

    • SrikanthK

      Good point. It was exactly for this reason I had also included the balance needed details.

      • Vivek

        In the balance, if 50% of actual NEM quota is considered , we will be in even better position except Chennai and Cuddalore

    • Ravi

      Me too. My gut feel it will be excess for TN

  • Venkatesh
  • Venkatesh

    asper CFS Model less November and excess December on the cards…Below Normal NEM..if any factors changing Then our NEM Rains will be 60 to 80 percent is expected.

  • Venkatesh
  • Venkatesh

    awesome

  • Venkatesh

    what a beauty of this depression

  • anandha kannan@svks

    @sri anna. Ecnwf picking a decent circulation off sw/sc bay. Can it churns out be our onset one?!

    • anandha kannan@svks

      Even depth of easterlies were rising off TN coast around same time 🙂

    • SrikanthK

      Could trigger the change. Just need to watch the consistency

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Hmm anna

  • SrikanthK
  • Shri

    Jus saw in thanthi TV ..because of el nino this monsoon will give more than above average rainfall ..is this even true?

  • SrikanthK

    The first tropical disturbance of NEM season has happened. So when we will see the first cyclone

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Where happened

      • Vignesh

        At north bay

  • SrikanthK

    Some showers near Poonamallee

  • A V Subramanian
    • A V Subramanian

      Desilting done to prevent flooding in chennai Airport

      All illatha kadaila yaarukku tea athurangannu theriale !!!

  • A V Subramanian

    GM All,

    Bright and Sunny morning, reflects second/ extended summer !!!

  • Vignesh
  • SrikanthK
    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      They are expecting it to become deep depression.

      • SrikanthK

        Yes not many were expecting it

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)
    • SrikanthK

      Looks like the system is moving fast

    • aman @ Guduvanchery

      Strengthened well.

    • Venkatesh

      lmost 35 to 40 km/hr

  • SrikanthK

    Yesterday’s thunderstorms in Badlapur video courtesy Abhijit Modak

    https://youtu.be/QAZUCgKx_0s

  • SrikanthK
  • ~Prince~
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