Interior Tamil Nadu continues to enjoy Daily Thunderstorms

The story of daily thunderstorms in Interior Tamil Nadu continues as yesterday also saw many places of the state get moderate to heavy rains from late night thunderstorms.  A few notable mention from yesterday include Perambalur, Ariyalur, Salem, Madurai,  Villupuram, Vellore Krishnaigiri & Tiruvannamalai districts. Chettykulam in Perambalur district recorded nearly 9 cms in a two hour spell around midnight as slow moving thunderstorms dumped rains in the areas it passed through.

 

 

Places like Salem, Vrinchipuram & Kallakurichi indicate the interior story that has been unraveling this October.  Salem has got about 19 cms since the turn of October which is more than 50% of the overall average of rains expected for the three month NEM season.  Vrinchipuram in Vellore district has got 26 cms in the last week or so while Kallakurichi has got 23 cms in the last 3 days with more than 30 cms since the turn of October.

 

 

Today a similar story is going to get enacted for the interiors with a low level wind convergence well placed to induce the thunderstorms over parts of Interior Tamil Nadu, Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh.  Isolated places in Northwest Tamil Nadu could get moderate to heavy late night thunderstorms under unstable atmospheric conditions. With rains expected to continue around the Karnataka, AP & Tamil Nadu tri-junction there exists an increased flooding risk for the rivers like Palar & Then Pennaiyaru around the districts of Krishnagiri, Vellore & Tiruvannamalai.

 

While coastal places like Chennai continue to miss out, things look good for a few places in Delta districts to get a spell or two of moderate rains today.  Things certainly improve as far as wind pattern for Chennai as well with winds becoming little more westerlies, this could bring in some late night / early morning rains to the city though widespread thunderstorm activity continues to be elusive for the past few days.

  • New Post udpated https://wp.me/p6Y3od-1CH

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)
  • Lakshmi Gopal

    Any hope of rains in south chennai? It’s been awfully dry lately.

  • SrikanthK

    1 mm in Anna Nagar

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    Intense thunderstorms over North Chennai

  • snake

    Intensive rain

  • SrikanthK

    Will be interesting to see how the Ensembles evolve

  • SrikanthK

    ECMWF further north compared to GFS but Diwali system becoming a reality

  • barath rakesh

    Tmrw poama forecast out very interesting last two years very good performance

    • sriram

      Law of averages works..neither 2017 will be as good as 2015 nor as bad as 2016..so this year near normal nem..

      • Natarajan

        Yes. Decent chances of near normal exists

      • narayanan_ky

        NEM is all about 3 system hitting us till mid dec chance exists for it..

        • sriram

          Ya..nature always balances everything..so a very poor nem ll be somewat compensated tis yr

  • narayanan_ky

    Tonight is getting cloudy with some low clouds is seen in southern suburbs of chennai..

    • barath rakesh

      Good chance in early morning rain

  • barath rakesh

    next summer will be soon

  • sriram
    • snake

      Laila?

  • barath rakesh

    Oct vandhum oru vidivukalam illa so sad

    • sriram

      The upcoming system is crucial..may be it can behave like cyclone kyant..

      • barath rakesh

        It happens only dry lpa possible

      • barath rakesh

        Because rains dumped in sea

        • sriram

          Anyways it ll help for nem onset like last yr

          • barath rakesh

            Yes

      • barath rakesh

        Last year ukmet was the first model system recurwe sw direction u know

      • Natarajan

        The current system may intensify into a very strong system like hudhud,vardah etc..

        • sriram

          Lets see..

      • Natarajan

        Less chance of moving to SW like kyant

  • Venkatesh

    any one is having idea of IOD value in 2014 OND

    • Natarajan

      IOD was mostly around weak positive

    • Natarajan

      By mid 2015 it became huge positive. A massive one after 1997

    • Natarajan

      We had couple of cyclones in arabian sea. In bay, cyclone hudhud formed in oct

  • ~Prince~

    GFS reducing the intensity of the SCS system on each runs

    • barath rakesh

      Good for us

  • Venkatesh
  • barath rakesh

    Cfs OLR shows strong system in arb sea

    • barath rakesh

      Mid nov

  • ~Prince~
    • barath rakesh

      Why u mention another one ?

      • ~Prince~

        okk kk i got it

  • Venkatesh
  • barath rakesh

    Nem extend jan

    • Natarajan

      Rarely we have seen nem extending to jan. In best years like 2005 too nem had wound up by dec. South tn may have got some showers in few years in jan

    • Natarajan

      2011 was the year in which nem was active till dec end and it was due to thane

    • Natarajan

      for chennai and NTN nem is more or less done by mid dec

      • barath rakesh

        Massive mjo enter our basin in mid nov good rains head for nov mid to dec mid may be one system form dec last week then nem extend jan lets hope

  • barath rakesh
  • barath rakesh

    Flash latest ukmet forecast out good nem head for us .past forecast shows below nem some positive news coming inline https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3030f297a7454cd0a102e073798969a137747db29b6c1c6ef7010e7203efc924.png

    • Natarajan

      its for dec/jan/feb. Also its on global scale. Dont know if it can be narrowed down to very state specific

      • barath rakesh

        See nov dec jan

  • Natarajan

    High SST and warm pool over a large area in West Pacific close to Philippines will make mjo attain high amplitude

  • Natarajan

    Mjo may attain huge amplitude in Martime continent and west Pacific

  • sriram

    Can anyone know a system which travelled towards tn coast, recurved into bob waters and again moved towards tn coast?

    • Natarajan

      Is it the one in December 1996?

      • sriram

        Thanks..almost similar..but it didnt touch the coast before recurve like roanu..may be the scenario what i ask is very rare..(A cyclone once hits the coast with winds n rains then it recurves..gains strength in ocean..then moves w/sw it targets the coast)..means the system which already gave rains to us moved away..then again shud again come back to us(2nd inings of same system)

        • Natarajan

          is it Madi in december 2013? I think it formed in sw bay moved north,came back to tn coast and made landfall somewhere in delta/stn

          • sriram

            Ya..i thnk tat recurved in bob waters itself(without touching tn coast)

            • sriram

              What i meant was a same cyclone/system which made landfall 2times in tn coast..

              • Natarajan

                Ok. Bit tricky. Is it ogni in 2006?it went very close to TN coast from Comorin sea. It would have grazed coast at multiple points I think

              • sriram

                Ya tats different..my question is simple..when roanu touched the coast and moved away,is there a possiblity of it to come back to same place?

    • Ganesh R

      One I can think of is 1984 Nov system which did it. It made landfall near Tada/Sulurpet if I remember correctly. My guess there is a possibility of it repeating this year (Nov 9 – 15) 🙁

  • sriram

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93c7f7efdf27856135db46a2a5db91ed332d874cd558560bf7b74e3841d8196b.png
    This is typhoon wyane 1986 in north western pacific ocean..This was the most weirdest track of a typhoon which lasted almost 21days..

  • Natarajan

    West pacific may turn out to be very active at least for next two weeks

  • SrikanthK
    • narayanan_ky

      Very happy for SI karnataka rains have helped our once dormant rivers to flow and dams filled up even before NEM arrived.
      Agriculture has been saved in western tn and even delta to some extent.
      Only coastal tn and S TN needs rain.

  • Natarajan

    ECMWF picks two typhoons in WPAC/SCS over next two weeks. The first one may hit vietnam and the second one which is much more powerful than the first will recurve towards japan/north west pacific

  • SrikanthK
    • Ramakrishna

      Sir when NEM going to start

  • SrikanthK
    • Natarajan

      How is he saying north east India?probably he considers Orissa,north ap as north east India 🙂

      • SrikanthK

        Yes

  • SrikanthK

    Heavy rains in parts of Bangalore

    • Vivek

      Yes getting stuck in traffic riding a 2-wheeler in that heavy rain is an enchanting experience

    • Ganesh R

      Hmmm Really ? Which part Sri. There was lightening / thunder and light drizzle.

      • SrikanthK

        Marathahalli seems to have got

    • Ravi

      I heard from a friend that in news they said heavy rains expeCted in Chennai and pondy area next three days. Is that true

      • SrikanthK

        Interiors areas yes but not sure of coastal places

  • SrikanthK

    Karaikal radar showing good storms

  • Leo Michaelraj
    • SrikanthK

      Can’t say with this

    • rohit n

      it’ll keep changing … should get a clearer idea in a day or two

      • Leo Michaelraj

        yes waiting for the COMK forecast on 15th

  • Leo Michaelraj
  • SrikanthK

    Can see some intense lightning to the North of Kolkata.

  • Venkatesh

    Moderate rain started in Hyderabad

    • SrikanthK

      Good enjoy

  • Venkatesh

    Any moment rain may start in Hyderabad city

  • Ramasamy Prs

    Heavy rains on the way from erode to kangeyam at about 15 kms before kangeyam.

    • SrikanthK

      West TN getting it’s final good spell i think

      • Ramasamy Prs

        Why sir, nothing from NEM?

        • SrikanthK

          Sorry it was meant to be SWM

          • Ramasamy Prs

            Ok sir.

    • Ramasamy Prs

      Good rains in kangeyam town, water flowing in roads like a mini flood.

  • SrikanthK

    Coimbatore will join Vellore and Dharmapuri i think

  • Ramasamy Prs

    Southern tamilnadu may be getting some rains, Trivandrum radar shows ts.

  • Venkatesh
  • Ramasamy Prs

    Extremely hot in erode, cumulonimbus clouds in the south west, maybe chances of thundershowers.

  • Venkatesh
  • SrikanthK
  • barath rakesh

    NE monsoon mathiri SE monsoon irundha nallairukum

    • Natarajan

      In NEM too we get winds from SE. bands also can come from SE

      • Vignesh

        It may happen when a system in arabian sea

        • Natarajan

          yes. In arabian, if system LLC is near to our latitude it would be almost E, if it ,moves north of our latitude it may turn to SE

        • Natarajan

          If system is near north kerala,lakshadweep it can impact us. If its farther away to the west i.e in south central arabian,the impact would be minimal on us

          • Vignesh

            Based on the strength and location need to be consider while pull effect. That time interiors will benefit too.

    • Natarajan

      On dec1st 2015 we got monster bands from SE only

    • Natarajan

      Like W/SW/WSW/WNW in SWM, during NEM we will have E/ENE/NE/SE/SSE

      • barath rakesh

        But more nne

        • Natarajan

          depends on system orientation. during nem we have got rains from NW too

  • sriram
    • anandha kannan@svks

      As expected…

    • SrikanthK

      Next it will move Southwest

      • anandha kannan@svks

        😂😂

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Good wave ah iruku bro.. Apdiya poguthu:(

  • barath rakesh

    May be close to sap latitude ntn get widespread rain

    • ~Prince~

      why its moving east after forming ??

      • barath rakesh

        Onset nem?

        • anandha kannan@svks

          Nope

        • Natarajan

          UAC may form but not trigger onset. LPA will form in east central bay and then develop into D/DD/cyclone towards north AP & orissa

          • anandha kannan@svks

            Yes.. At last some rains possible as a consolation even if uac forms:D

            • Natarajan

              yeah.coastals konjam doubt thaan 🙂

              • anandha kannan@svks

                Gfs showing direct rains from sea for deltas it seems paakalam:)

              • Natarajan

                Ok. Would be interesting! I think in sept some places in cuddalore dist and parts of nagai like mayiladuthurai got rains from popups in sea

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Westerlies are still dominating . The system must be obviously pulled to east then..

        • anandha kannan@svks

          And Ridge will then start favoring after crossing 15 N

          • SrikanthK

            Which ridge. Without the cyclone forming we will not know whether ridge to the right or left will guide the cyclone

        • anandha kannan@svks

          And wpac system is disturbing our winds too

  • barath rakesh
    • Natarajan

      formation of uac close to chennai is unfavourable for TS. We have seen this in first of sept too. winds were N/NE and pushed ts further east to interiors

    • Venkatesh

      Useless air circulation

  • SrikanthK
  • ~Prince~
  • Vignesh

    Happy to see karaikal radar

    • SrikanthK

      Right in time for NEM season

  • Venkatesh

    Beautiful cumulus clouds around Hyderabad outskirts. Chances of evening/night showers are high https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e60932d9892a82653765d025675a72c9e226da8529cc7e4417fe6cc0fe79281f.jpg

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    After stalling for 10 days Southwest monsoon has started withdrawing again.

    • Selvakumar(Raijin)

      That good news for awaiting people

    • Natarajan

      If the upcoming strong DD/cyclone makes North AP landfall and moves WSW towards telengana , swm withdrawal may get stalled again

  • barath rakesh
    • Natarajan

      If it moves westerly, landfall close to kakinada.If its NW, Tuni,anakapalle and places just south of vizag have chances

    • IMD GfS will react 12 hours after GFS

  • barath rakesh
  • Venkatesh

    Entire hyderabad has seen widespread moderate rains in the early morning and sunny hot and humid now.

  • sriram
  • barath rakesh

    Ukmet and navgem close to the chennai coast and take nw

    • Natarajan

      The precursor low will form in east central bay in 2-3 days. Even if it moves westerly direction it will hit north/Central AP only. GFS/ECM are quite consistent on landfall around north AP & orissa

      • barath rakesh

        8 days away!!!!!!!

        • Natarajan

          yes. But imd too is picking pre cursor low in east central bay. Climatology in oct always favours orissa/North Ap/WB/Burma/Bangladesh landfall for strong systems emerging from andaman sea or central bay

  • Natarajan

    Vizag,Kalingapatnam,srikakulam,Ichchapuram,vizianagaram in north AP & gopalpur,berhampore,puri in orissa are potential spots. Kakinada and places slightly south of vizag too have chances

  • Natarajan

    Models consistent on strong DD/cyclone hitting north AP/south orissa coast by oct 20th

  • sriram
  • Natarajan

    This may be the first time in many years that mettur will be getting very good inflows without much rains in kodagu.Massive rains in ramanagara,chamrajnagar,mandya and catchments in krishnagiri did the trick

    • SrikanthK

      Downstream of Kabini and KRS is seeing all the action

      • Natarajan

        yes k’taka govt would be fuming at this 🙂

        • Vignesh

          Andavane namma pakkam😁😁

        • SrikanthK

          It will be an irony if Mettur ends up with higher levels compared to KRS

          • Natarajan

            yes.there are very good chances of happening. As hoganekkal has got 17cms, there will be big jump in mettur inflows from today. Also if there are widespread rains again in SI karnataka and krishnagiri districts in coming days, mettur can end up with levels higher than KRS

      • Natarajan

        SI karnataka rains have been contributing much to mettur since aug last week

  • SrikanthK

    Hogenekal 17 cm very good for Cauvery inflow

    • Gershome Paul

      any idea what is the current inflow to Mettur dam?

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)
    • Ramasamy Prs

      Good news but strict action should be taken against discharge of polluted water from dying units in and around tirupur.

  • SrikanthK

    Dharmapuri has recorded 34 mm till 8:30 today morning, with this possibly it becomes the 2nd place in #TamilNadu to complete its annual quota of rainfall. As of yesterday it had reached 87 cms against annual avg of 91 cm

    • anandha kannan@svks

      @sri Anna.. Can you give me the rf of vnr or svks from Jan 1 to Oct 2017?

      • SrikanthK

        Have not tracked these two places need to collate the last few days rains, will give SWM & NEM so far in a day or two

        • anandha kannan@svks

          Okay Anna..

          • Prabhu Vishwa

            Vellore city crossed it’s annual rainfall ….Presently it reached 1039 mms it’s annual is 1034 mms

  • Ramasamy Prs

    Continuous light rain from 10.30 pm to 6am in our village near kangeyam may be around 2cm.good for the rain fed crops.

  • SrikanthK
    • Ganesh R

      Wow…Many places in Vellore /Krishnagiri/Kanchi district should be closing in on their yearly target. Any thing more will be a bonus. The rainfall spread will be almost 5 months which should be considered very good for ground water recharge.

    • Ramasamy Prs

      Most of the interiors got above normal rains so far so atleast 60 to 70 percent of average NEM will not be bad.

      • jeganatharaja

        Most of the interiors doesn’t include Tuticorin, Tirunelveli and Virudhunagar west. These are not getting any sizable rains sofar especially Tuti , worst affected. Most of the villages struggling to fetch water for basic domestic use. NEM forecasts also frightened them further.

        • SrikanthK

          South TN especially to the South of Madurai is for sure struggling

        • Ramasamy Prs

          Southern parts are struggling compared to northern parts of the state, I think nature will compensate these areas with good rains during the coming days.

  • aman @ Guduvanchery

    Good day in Bangalore, with drizzles from morning, Seasonal changes are good and gradual, eastern bay is active good sign for our first major NEM system.

    • SrikanthK

      Rains around today also i think

  • anandha kannan@svks

    Good morning :)..so models are in consensus of a system hitting nap /orissa.. But the intensity remains still a question.. ..also the models expecting swm to pick up pace as the system expected to suck the moisture from entire India. So things surely becoming better after the next 1 week

    • aman @ Guduvanchery

      After OCT we will call it NEM, thewesterlies will not be the cause of that system.

      • anandha kannan@svks

        Withdrawal word I’s left out

  • Barath Parthasarathy

    Rain lashed vellore again last night. Early morning from around 3am, it was a downpour. Running water in Palar river after a long time.

    • SrikanthK

      Super to hear about Palar

    • sudar san

      awesome to hear about palar

  • barath rakesh

    Latest cfs oLR shows good nov for us

  • barath rakesh

    For the change all models shows nov only save us

  • Ganesh R

    Dream run for the interiors including BLR and other areas in KA continues. SWM’s tail is proving to be the elixir of life for many areas. Kudos to SWM on doing it’s job with more than 100%dedication.:-)

    • SrikanthK

      If you put on perspective this performance the failure of NEM may not be too bad in certain parts of Tamil Nadu

  • SrikanthK

    Things surely improving on the Northeast Monsoon front

    • A V Subramanian

      GM and Good news !!!!

      Any specific reason ? Curiosity ,😊😊😊

      • SrikanthK

        May be West Pac may not be as disrupting as originally estimated

        • A V Subramanian

          Good news, thanks 😊😊

    • anandha kannan@svks

      Wow

    • Sainath

      Sugar put in Sri mouth 🙂

    • sriram cr

      good to hear, hope things to improve further

  • Malakrishnasamy

    Which districts will get benefits from polar and thenpennai rivers?
    Hope all the waterbodies in the path of the river is well prepared to store the water for future use.

    • SrikanthK

      Vellore, Krishnagiri, TV Malai, Kanchipuram, Villupuram and Cuddalore

      • Malakrishnasamy

        As of now these areas are the lucky packets..
        Hope the farming community is utilizing the best out of it.

      • Malakrishnasamy

        Anna. Any specific reason for that tri- junction to get maximum rains this time ?

        • SrikanthK

          Almost daily convergence of winds because of the stalled withdrawal

  • SrikanthK

    When there is an 8 day spread in the Ensembles you know things are very fluid.

  • ~Prince~

    After SWM withdrawal from 15N, will there be any change in system track or no change ??

    • SrikanthK

      Dont think monsoon withdrawal will change the track drastically, yes when Monsoon dynamics is stronger and the trough is well placed then the disturbance is likely to merge with the trough

  • The note about Flooding Risk is not to create panic but highlight the genuine possibility of flooding considering the dam levels in the rivers and also the high soil saturation the region has seen due to consistent rains.