After giving a bountiful of rains to South Tamil Nadu during midnight & early hours of 14th March 2018 bringing some localized water logging impact over parts of Tirunelveli & Thoothukudi districts yesterday was the turn of Coastal Karnataka & North Kerala to enjoy good rains.
Currently lying over the Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep Islands it is expected to track North / Northwest slowly loosing intensity as it climbs up the latitude. Under the influence of this depression the West coast is expected to enjoy a good day of rains today as well with Coastal Karnataka once again enjoying the bulk of the rains before the dynamics change drastically.
As the depression looses steam models expect it to come under the influence of the Upper Level Westerly Trough shearing away the convection. This sheared system will be pushed from West to East over the Interior Areas of Peninsular India gradually moving it further towards the East Coast on Friday. Depending on where the interaction happens between the Low & the Upper level Trough we are likely to see a broad area come under thunderstorm zone.
With the bulk of the convection over the interiors there is going to be a heady cocktail of Wind Convergence, Latent Heating driven Convection along with the remnant moisture pushed over land making it a perfect recipe for thunderstorms. As things stand South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, North AP & South Coastal AP are well placed to enjoy these thunderstorms. Depending on localized conditions and right wind convergence zone we could possibly see the season’s first hailstorms in a few areas.