Fairly Dry Weather prevailed over most of Tamil Nadu as 2017 wound down and 2018 was heralded with much fanfare. It appears the dry start to 2018 will possibly persist over the next few days going by numerical models. Though currently there are a couple of disturbances in the Bay neither of them seem to be favorably placed to provide meaningful rains to the state.
A look at the last 7 days of rainfall accumulation from TRMM Mission confirms how the convection has predominantly to the Southern Hemisphere. Except for the Eastern parts of Indian Ocean rest of the region has seen the ITCZ move well south of Equator. Thanks to the near continuous activity over the Maritime continent the adjoining parts of Indian Ocean continues to fight a battle in trying to hold the ITCZ over the Northern fringes of the ocean.
As mentioned in the opening remarks there exists two weak disturbances in Bay but neither seems to be favorably placed as far as Tamil Nadu goes. On the one hand there exists a trough of low in the Central Bay area which seems to have come under the influence of the dipping Mid Level Westerly Trough taking away the convection and associated rainfall bands into Northeast. Similarly the Trough of Low lying in the Equatorial Waters off Sumatra is too low in latitude to influence weather over Indian Sub continent.
With the presence of the Trough in Central Bay one can expect near normal day time temperatures over most parts of the state while nights could be slightly warmer than normal due to partially cloudy conditions.