Is Cyclone Sagar heading to Chennai on Dec. 3rd?

There is a lot of buzz in social media & a lot of mainstream Tamil Media about possible Cyclone Sagar heading the way of Chennai on December 3rd along with heavy rains between 3rd and 5th of December.  Videos being circulated in WhatsApp, frantic messages from worried residents of Chennai on when is the cyclone going to hit Chennai has forced us to make this post on what is in store for the next few days for Chennai.

We have always made it a point to reiterate weather dynamics are very fluid and can change much faster than we can think off.  When models were not estimating Cyclone Ockhi to happen they were estimating a possible cyclone in Bay under the influence of MJO.  With Cyclone Ockhi still off the coast of Kerala the environment was no more conducive for the pulse from South China Sea to move into Bay and develop into a Cyclone.

We once again reiterate the dynamics remain fluid even now with Cyclone Ockhi getting ready for a possible NE recurve which could put it on a weaker wicket compared to today.

Will this push the pendulum back in favor of Bay? “அடுத்த 24 மணி நேரத்தில் காத்து எந்த பக்கம் வீச கூடும் என்று தெரிய துவங்கும்”