For the year 2017 the second cyclone has formed in Bay of Bengal, “Cyclone Mora” a name given by Thailand in the North Indian Ocean Cyclone Name Roster has followed Cyclone Maarutha in forming over Central Bay of Bengal. As was the case with Cyclone Maarutha the current disturbance also could trace its origin in the seas around Andaman Islands and as is the case more often than not with Pre monsoon cyclones is taking a Northward track towards Bangladesh.
Not often would one see Bay of Bengal host two cyclones during the pre monsoon season. As a matter of fact 2017 will end up being only the 5th year in the past 50 years to see two cyclones during Pre Monsoon Period. Interestingly 1982 saw two cyclones for the first time since 1965 almost twenty years gap while in the last 35 years or so we have had 4 instances of twin cyclone in a single pre monsoon season. Is this a long term pattern evolving one is a question worth trying to find an answer considering the increasing ocean temperatures.
As one can see from the past tracks its quite obvious climatology favors a North Bay landfall at this time of the year with a North / North East recurve a firm possibility more often than not. Similarly the area to the West of Andaman Islands is the hot bed in terms of genesis at this time of the year.
Closer home on the weather front for Tamil Nadu its likely to be a hot & dry day ahead for most parts of the state with suppressed weather conditions likely to prevail. Westerly winds are expected to dominate conditions with few places in North Coastal Tamil Nadu & adjoining places of South Andhra Coast likely to see day time maximum temperature stay 3 / 4 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Models are indicating sea breeze to make an impact around mid afternoon for Chennai which could keep the temperatures high and possibly continue to 40°C streak for Meenambakkam.