Stormy weekend likely over Coastal Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu’s tryst with thunderstorms during the break in monsoon period continues unabated as yesterday saw many parts of Chennai hit by moderate to heavy spells of rains in the evening.  The Western and Northern suburbs of Chennai saw the better spells of rains as places like Puzhal, Red Hills were hit by intense burst of rains around 5 in the evening.

One can consider yesterday as a prelude to what most of Tamil Nadu is likely to see over the course of the next couple of days.  Not often one is likely to see wide spread rains in the coastal areas during Southwest Monsoon unless a lot of factors come in place at the same time.  The next couple of days is likely to see a combination of factors which is likely to work favorably for Tamil Nadu in terms of thunderstorm prospects.

While the convective storms are mostly called “Veppa Salanam” or heat induced rains one should possibly not discard the role played by winds at lower and upper levels in creating the necessary instability in the atmosphere for the thunderstorms to thrive.  Today is likely to be one such day with Mid Tropospheric Instability expected to come into equation during the later part of the day.

Adding fuel to the combustible atmosphere is the likely hood of Off shore convergence near North Coastal TN at lower levels and the probability of a strong sea breeze front which could interact with the thunderstorms moving in from the interiors towards the coast.

As always the case its futile to just blindly go by model outputs and point a single place of interest in terms of possible impact.  Overall it appears the coastal TN along with parts of South AP between Delta & Nellore is ideally placed to benefit out of the thunderstorms moving in from the interiors.  As always the case expect the thunderstorms to intensify closer to the coast, but lets not forget the genesis will more often than not be the interiors and possibly triggered by in many cases mechanical lifting by the broken Eastern Ghats.

  • New Post Updated http://wp.me/p6Y3od-1xb

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Some drizzles here.I can see fast moving clouds from SW

  • Barath Parthasarathy

    heavy rain in vellore from night. still continues.

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Enjoy the rains

  • Padmanabhan G

    Rains continuing from last night at Devikapuram (between Chetpet and Polur)

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Oh no everywhere it’s raining except Chennai😔

  • Siddhart

    Today it’s better to forget about rains…

  • Siddhart

    This damn storm won’t give rains and prevent rains later in the day…. For Chennai

  • gargara

    @GaneshR – how about my probablistic scenario ? I said few days back TN in excess and Karnataka in deficit. Looks like happening now.

    • Ganesh R

      Yes. Looks like it happening. Few more days of good rains in TN in Aug and few good spells in Sept should be good.

  • Narasimhan Sankaranarayanan

    What a night! Rains here in pondy throughout the night and continues now, looks like rains during deep depression, waiting for numbers of yesterday

    • SrikanthK

      67 mm till morning 5:30

      • Narasimhan Sankaranarayanan

        Wow! Good for ground water levels

  • Siddhart

    Storms everywhere except Chennai. How unlucky we are!!

    • Ajith Kumar K

      Look at South !!! Wow 😱

  • ~Prince~

    Storms crossed CGP

  • Lakshmi Gopal

    Windy and a bit chilly. Doesn’t bode well for rain, does it?

    • SrikanthK

      Except for North there are rain bands all around us Maam

  • gargara

    After all these rains is TN still in deficit ? Will we need to worry about water ?

    • SrikanthK

      TN will become excess as of today with the core Monsoon districts, Nilgiris & KK in deficit, that says something

      • gargara

        I absolutely loathe the idea of TN asking Karnataka for water. Let the floods come TN people will handle it .

  • Prabhu Vishwa

    Thiruvannamalai smashed 100 mms so far

    • SrikanthK

      Just was about to post

  • ~Prince~

    Those storms won’t reach us???

    • SrikanthK

      There is a convergence over TN unfortunately for Chennai we are as of now in the No Wind Zone

  • ~Prince~

    Dark clouds in south

  • Mohamed sameer

    Omg i cant never expect this type of rain in august..!!!! Non stop raining in ayyampettai(thanjavur district) from yesterday 7.30PM still rain continues now..!!!!
    Sir can you pleas tell me the reason for this type of rain why happening without break ?? Rain is just like a northeast monsoon days conditions is prevailing now here

    • gargara

      strong moisture gradient.

    • gargara

      Is your village near thiruvaiyaru ?

      • Mohamed sameer

        Yesss

        • gargara

          Kudamurutti river any water in it ?

  • Mohamed sameer

    Please give the data for thanjvur district sir

    • SrikanthK

      Will update in a while Sameer, trying to tabulate the TN data

      • Mohamed sameer

        Thnk u sir

        • SrikanthK

          Ammapettai has crossed 70 mm, Adirampattinam 49 mm and Thanjavur Agro 35 mm these are the majors as of now

  • SrikanthK

    Confused about today’s post

    • Siddhart

      Why

    • Siddhart

      Because of cloud cover. Which affects convective rains…

      • SrikanthK

        Both plus the thunderstorms are still continuing

        • Siddhart

          If it comes to Chennai it would be a OMG factor!!!

  • SrikanthK

    Kallakurichi 60 mm in one hour

  • SrikanthK

    Checked the radar after 40 minutes as expected the rain bands did not cross the Chengalpet border.

  • SrikanthK

    Lets hope the current batch of thunderstorms clear up soon for some rain prospects later in the day. Will finish my cycling and come back. Nothing much can be expected out of Chennai from this batch

    • Ramirao

      Looks like the forecast for Rayalaseema and SAP becomes biggest failure. What about SI KTK/Bangalore?

      • Ramirao

        Even CAP failed badly….:((

      • SrikanthK

        Which forecast are you referring?

        • Ramirao

          Topic forecast…also other models’ forecast too for Rayalaseema and coastal AP.

          • SrikanthK

            Thanks for taking time and effort to come amidst your busy schedule to confirm the Topic was wrong. We will try to do it better next time Rami

            • Ramirao

              Sri Why are you exciting? It’s about the models. All models failed for this Rayalaseema and Coastal AP… I also given alert in tweet. If you know the reason for the failure then please give me the answer. It’s a massive failure for the models, which I didn’t expected😂

              • SrikanthK

                There is nothing to get excited about in this.

  • SrikanthK

    Villupuram dt has got very good rains lto of 40s & 50s there

  • SrikanthK

    “Enge area Ulle Varadhe” border is Chengalpet

  • SrikanthK

    End game beginning for the current batch of thunderstorms

  • SrikanthK

    The Mid tropospheric Wind Discontinuity type of situation projected by models is clearly visible in the wind pattern estimated by the radar

  • SrikanthK

    Storms possibly loosing intensity slowly though some new storms forming along the Northern edges

  • SrikanthK

    Pondy 49 mm till 2:30

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    West Interiors also getting good rains, Coimbatore Agro 9 mm

    • Ramasamy Prs

      Yes sir continous drizzling from night at our place near kangeyam

      • SrikanthK

        Superb, good for some ground water percolation

  • SrikanthK

    ECMWF expected the rain bands to move NW from the interiors

    • SrikanthK

      If the storms dont move up in the morning as ECMWF expected we should possibly forget rains for later during the day

  • SrikanthK

    @manimanivannanp:disqus must be very happy Tv Malai 88 mm so far of which 57 in one hour between 2:30 and 3:30

  • SrikanthK

    What a day for coastal Tamil Nadu

  • rohit n

    Seems like mahabalipuram to puducherry stretch is receiving good rains

    • SrikanthK

      Yes and the rains are still continuing

  • rohit n

    Semma rain for the past 40 mins in Pondicherry with massive lightning

  • ~Prince~

    Some pop ups in West of Vellore and MDP

    • Siddhart

      It may transform into a huge storm.,if conditions suit. In all terms a restless night thinking about it…

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Very slow moving storms

  • Prabhu Vishwa

    Its raining in vellore ???….Plz someone update …Will vellore city get heavy rains ???…Many bloggers telling we will get more nut no sign still …Just 8 mms 3 mms 11 mms like that only

    • Siddhart

      Probably a mini pop-up .Nothing major expected tonight..

      • Prabhu Vishwa

        Virichi puram vellore 40 mms so far

  • Mohamed sameer

    Non stop raining in ayyampettai from 7.30PM still continues now

    • SrikanthK

      Very good rains in Delta today. Enjoy

      • Mani Manivannan P

        Good night sir , today night any chances for rain at Tiruvannamalai.

        • SrikanthK

          You must have enjoyed good rains for third straight day isn’t it

  • SrikanthK

    While south Chennai enjoys the rains spare a thought for us. 30°C at Anna Nagar

    • Narayanan Ky

      We were spectators yday…

  • sudarsan

    Awesome rains at chromepet

  • Sainath

    I am planning to set up a rain gauge in my terrace which is free from any sort of disturbances; please guide me

  • Sainath

    Raining for past 20 minutes consistently and heavy in Nanganallur

  • gargara

    http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/3Dhalfhr_uth.jpg

    Just north of Chennai over south AP huge amount of upper tropospheric humidity.

    Problem is wind direction will take it into S AP.

    http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/3D_wvwind.jpg

  • ~Prince~

    Heavy rains @chrompet

    • Narayanan Ky

      Good thing this spell is not restricted to tambaram-guduvanchery belt and areas upto pallavaram is covered

    • SrikanthK

      Enjoy after being spectator for the last two days

      • ~Prince~

        Sure 😊😊✌✌

  • SrikanthK

    Massive rains in Delta once again

    • gargara

      http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/3Dtpw_a1.jpg

      No surprises.

      South of Chennai and Delta. That is where the TPW is.

      • SrikanthK

        Today once again proves the actual events could be south / north of what the models estimate especially global models

        • gargara

          If you recall the day after Cyclone Nada on 1st December or 30th November most models failed to pick up the day after rains. Such rains are usually not preceded by strong pressure gradients but mostly moisture gradients.

          • gargara

            In fact Sailesh chided me when I wrote in this blog that day after Nada rains were supposed to be big time show. He said I am unnecessarily hyping up rains. Then 2 days of huge showers all over Chennai.

    • gargara

      I think the lunch time sounding made it quite clear. West of Mahabalipuram was where the clouds were supposed to form.

  • Ajith Kumar K

    Are stroms losing intensity? Like previous storms ?

    • Ajith Kumar K

      Just small doubt looking on winds sorry if I said wrong

      • SrikanthK

        Dont think they are loosing intensity, they are not intensifying though

  • Narayanan Ky

    Next heavy spell started@ east tambaram

    • SrikanthK

      Good day for you

  • Arun

    Steady rain @ Perungalathur

    • SrikanthK

      Super enjoy the rains

  • barath rakesh

    Ready for tambaram

    • SrikanthK

      Yes good spell on the way once again

  • SrikanthK

    South of Chennai show today

  • ~Prince~

    Such a fast development in NW clouds towering fastly …..

  • Siddhart

    Any overnight storm formation expected.. If.. For Chennai anything benefit!!!

    • SrikanthK

      Let’s see some chance after midnight

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    Another thunderstorm near Poonamallee

    • Narayanan Ky

      Humid now after rains ..more rains on the way…

  • SrikanthK

    Marakkanathil Oru Mazhaikaalam

  • barath rakesh

    Ecmwf shows midnight rains

  • barath rakesh

    Fresh pop ups formed west of madanapalli

  • SrikanthK

    OMR must be getting good rains

  • ~Prince~

    One tiny pop up N of chennai

  • SrikanthK

    Seeing lightning here at Kolathur from those storms in south suburbs

  • SrikanthK

    All those in OMR and ECR who were spectators could get decent spell today

    • Narayanan Ky

      Shols to kelambakkam will get….

  • SrikanthK

    Aman must be enjoying good rains today

    • Narayanan Ky

      Yes best of rains was there especially Tambaram to guduvanchery smashed … traffic piled up there…

  • SrikanthK
    • SrikanthK

      Taken near Attur

  • ~Prince~

    Only Light rains with severe lightning and thunder @chrompet

    • SrikanthK

      All going to your southwest

      • ~Prince~

        Yes bro missed rains

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Any late night rains possible

  • SrikanthK

    Sidhart must be happy he should have got decent rains today

    • Siddhart

      Yes of course..

      • SrikanthK

        Good reward for your patience

  • Narayanan Ky

    @east tambaram My area all set for evening show getting absolutely dark in West..

    • Narayanan Ky

      Best rains this August @ east tambaram
      Fireworks with heavy rains

      • SrikanthK

        Enjoy radar showing Tambaram as the biggest beneficiary of today’s rains

        • Narayanan Ky

          Yes it has been missing for a long time….50 to 70mm probably flooding rains…shelf clouds was clearly visible a while back

  • ~Prince~
  • The current ones in the radar is for down south unless it makes a eastward movement.. Next few updates crucial to watch if sea breeze is helping.

    • Ajith Kumar K

      Yes a south movement almost lost intensity

  • ~Prince~

    Can hear loud thunder here

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Storms weakening

      • SrikanthK

        North Chennai may not get anything by the look of it

  • SrikanthK

    South Chennai & South suburbs stand a better chance I think

    • Leo Michaelraj

      So today rains for S Chennai

  • ~Prince~
  • SrikanthK

    Could drift down South need to watch it

  • barath rakesh

    Please come fast stormmmmmmmm

  • barath rakesh

    Lets hope drizzle bands

  • barath rakesh

    Slowly weaken

  • SrikanthK

    Squall line developing though not as good as yesterday

    • ~Prince~

      very slow process

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Storms not picking up like yesterday

  • barath rakesh

    Heavy rain started at thirumullaivoyal reported

  • barath rakesh

    Storms weakening something wrong

    • Ganesh R

      May be the winds at different levels are playing spoilsport.

  • SrikanthK

    Drizzling in Anna Nagar

    • Leo Michaelraj

      Here too drizzling

      • Sainath

        Where? Please put the place

  • Yaamesh

    drizzling in avadi

  • SrikanthK

    Storms around Vellore slowly developing

  • Narayanan Ky

    Storms are not in a hurry to grow big today…

    • SrikanthK

      Just picking up pace now

    • Ganesh R

      Cloud feeding with Horlicks is the only way out now.. 🙂

  • Siddhart
  • SrikanthK

    Some pop ups now in Southwest as well

    • Mani Manivannan P

      Sir, please north tn rain will possible??

      • SrikanthK

        Things look good for Rains today also for North TN

        • Mani Manivannan P

          Thanks sir neenga sonna correct a irukkuthu.

  • Vivek

    Any prospects for Coimbatore

    • SrikanthK

      Looks quiet going by models

  • ~Prince~

    One Development happening in West !!!!!!

  • barath rakesh

    Flash micro pop ups formed nw inside 50km range

    • SrikanthK

      One developing near Nagalapuram

      • narayanan_ky

        Ideal spot for Chennai..one close to poondi and SRP too… already weather is pleasant as it is quite cloudy in west

  • SrikanthK
    • Siddhart

      When could we expect….

      • narayanan_ky

        Check for popups in radar they are the trigger…

        • Siddhart

          Still nothing!!!

          • narayanan_ky

            Not much heat in interiors I guess

        • Siddhart

          When pop-ups might come

      • SrikanthK

        Models expecting a late show

  • SrikanthK

    Strong sea breeze in cathedral road

    • Leo Michaelraj

      But no popups yet

      • SrikanthK

        Will take time I think

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Temperature trending slightly higher than yesterday

  • barath rakesh
  • barath rakesh
  • barath rakesh
  • gargara

    http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/Chennai.gif

    Latest sounding is of off the coast of Mahabalipuram. Way to go !

    12.66 80.43. I am sure people here are from ECR area. Any clouds over there ?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7c1266e279bd03bcc08999647e6620ce772c496d89dc074496d31c4e9080f65.jpg

    • ~Prince~

      there is cloud pop up everywhere !!!

      • Leo Michaelraj

        Where? here no clouds clear sky

        • ~Prince~

          Chrompet , lots of low level clouds everyside ….

  • barath rakesh

    Ponneri-6cm,illayangudi-8cm

  • narayanan_ky

    Excited to know about rainfall prospects for weekend!!!!
    Common public may not foresee rains seeing the sunny conditions….!!

    • Siddhart

      Truee

  • *CLIMATE CHANGE*

    – The climate is a function of the relationships and interdependence of many variables that will be covered in this writing.

    – It is not generally as simple as one cause leads to one effect since a cause can lead to many effects and multiple causes combine together to produce an effect.

    – Long term climate science is tricky but enough is known to formulate many generalities.

    – This list is by no means comprehensive and with so many variables being present it is difficult to state certainties.

    – It is also important to note that the relationships discussed are primarily for long term climate change and not day to day weather changes.

    – *Climate is the long term average of weather events*

    – Weather records of 30 to 50 years can be used to get a good idea of the climate of a location. This climate though does change over 100’s, 1000’s and 10s of thousands of years and longer.

    – The reasons that climate change includes factors such as the Milankovitch Cycles, volcanism, positioning of continents on Earth, percent of Earth covered by water, abundance of life, abundance of clouds/particulates in the atmosphere, greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere (H20, CO2, methane, etc.), the sun’s energy output, and asteroid impacts. Each of these will be analyzed for how they impact the climate change on Earth.

    *Milankovitch Cycles*

    These include the tilt of the earth, the precession of Earth’s orbit, and the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit.

    *Volcanism*

    – Volcanism releases gasses and particulates into the atmosphere. This can result in either a cooling or warming of climate.

    – A cooling can occur when enormous amounts of particulates such as dust and ash are released high into the atmosphere. Once high in the atmospheres these particulates can stay suspended for many years.

    – The particulates help reflect incoming solar radiation and this can result in a cooling of climate. If an enormous amount of greenhouse gasses are released from volcanism, the increase in these gases can contribute to warming the climate over longer time scales.

    – Thus volcanism can generally cool the climate at first and then warm the climate over the long term. Volcanism was much higher in the early Earth than it is now.

    – The temporary cooling effect from dust and ash emissions that reach the upper atmosphere are the major effect of volcanic eruptions in this day in age.

    *Positioning of continents*

    – The positioning of continents helps control where the ocean currents are located.

    – The size of the continents will determine how much land area is landlocked and thus not as influenced by the oceans.

    – A huge climate control is the ocean water. The positioning of cold and warm ocean currents has a strong influence on the climates of locations, especially near the water.

    – Continental drift explains how the continents move over geologic time due to molten rock circulations beneath the Earth’s crust.

    – Over time the continents slowly change position and this impacts the position and strength of ocean currents.

    – The positioning of ice caps and glaciers can also have an influence on ocean currents.

    *Percent of Earth Covered by Water*

    – Water has a high heat capacity and can thus store huge volumes of energy.

    – Climate is modified by the ocean surface. A higher percent of land area can result in greater temperature extremes during the year while a higher percent of water area can result in lesser temperature extremes during the year.

    – Currently the Earth is covered with about 70% water. The climate would be different if this value was changed to 65% or 75%.

    – Rising sea level increases the water percentage coverage. This is typically accompanied with warming temperatures. Lowering sea level decreases the water percentage coverage but can result in a greater ice coverage since ice caps and glaciers tend to expand when temperatures cool globally.

    *Abundance of Life*

    – Plant life uses solar energy to make and store sugars. Abundant life also changes the albedo of the land surface.

    – Plant life produces a lower albedo that results in more solar energy being absorbed.

    – Abundant plant life also takes in an abundance of CO2 while animals through respiration release CO2, which is a greenhouse warming gas.

    – Regions abundant in plant life tend to have more H2O.

    – H2O is a greenhouse gas and water on the surface is good at absorbing abundant amounts of solar radiation.

    – Huge land areas that are covered in rich vegetation will tend to warm the planet.

    *Abundance of Clouds/Particulates in the Atmosphere*

    – A wetter climate will add more water vapor to the atmosphere.

    – Water vapor is a greenhouse gas that contributes to atmospheric warming thus the addition of evaporation and transpiration will tend to warm the climate.
    – An abundance of vegetation will help produce a steady supply of H2O to the atmosphere. Wet soils from rain will also help a steady supply of H2O to the air.

    – An increase of H2O can lead to more clouds. An increase of clouds can help reflect away more incoming solar radiation. Thus, although H2O leads to greenhouse warming, it can be kept in check by less solar radiation reaching the surface due to reflection off of clouds.

    – Particulates such as from dust storms and pollution will add substances to the atmosphere that can reflect some incoming solar radiation. This can cause cooler temperatures at the surface.

    *Greenhouse Gas Levels in the Atmosphere (H20, CO2, methane, etc.)*

    – An increase in greenhouse gases will lead to warmer temperatures. The two main greenhouse gasses are H2O (Water Vapor) and CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).

    – H2O is an important greenhouse gas due to its abundance while CO2 is important since it is a strong greenhouse gas even though it is a small percentage of the overall air in the atmosphere.

    – An increase in plant life will cause more H2O to be emitted into the atmosphere which contributes to warming.

    – The burning of fossil fuels increases CO2 in the atmosphere which contributes to warming. Methane being released from warmer soils can contribute to warming.

    – As a general rule, the higher the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then the warmer the temperature.

    *Sun’s Energy Output*

    – The sun has a dramatic influence on climate. The distance from the sun and the solar output are both very important factors.

    – The Earth being 1% closer or farther from the sun or the sun producing 1% less or more output will have a significant influence on the Earth’s climate.

    – Sun spot cycles slightly alter the solar output. Over geologic time the solar output from the sun changes.

    *Asteroid Impacts*

    – Large asteroid impacts will have a catastrophic impact on climate. They can produce a dramatic cooling over a short period of time. This occurs due to the enormous amount of dust that is emitted into the atmosphere after impact.

    – Some of the dust will stay in the atmosphere for months and years. This significantly reduces the solar radiation that is able to reach the surface. This can result in much colder temperatures that puts stress on life forms.

    – Dramatic changes to the species on Earth can result from asteroid impacts.

    – Albedo changes on Earth following a large asteroid impact will also alter climate.

  • Siddhart

    Could someone please say how to read a sounding data!!!!anybody..

    • gargara

      You need to provide an incentive to answer these kind of questions.

      Possibilities include black forest cake , fresh fruit juice, some bengali sweets(ros malai, sondesh, you get the idea), mango milk shake etc.

      • Ajith Kumar K

        😝😂😂😂 I too asked this question but you told that you will tell during NEM

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Nice Clear sky

    • SrikanthK

      Good to see skies clearing early

  • SrikanthK

    Quite a few models expecting MJO to remain weak which does not augur well for Monsoon revival https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f2d42ae7b5db58f3b85c8f96f209778288ed8a144cd0adf263dfd9a2a535bb49.gif

    • Akshay

      I don’t think. High amplitude suppressed MJO is right now o/Indonesia. Strong MJO will come to IO but question is will it be faster event or slower progression from IO.

  • Ramirao

    WOW! Undulatus asperatus clouds seen late in 2015 from Harrodsburg, Kentucky. Photo credit: Johannah McKinney Cheek. #KYwx

    https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/895471519853404160/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fby%2FGyrorao%2F

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK
    • gargara

      I was just looking at it. Another sounding over the Bay of Bengal according to lat and lon. Note dew point curve is fully saturated. So clouding should not be a problem at all. Also note the green line it dips and is away from the blue line with open circles. So hint of gentle instability at the lower levels. At the lower levels air parcels are fully saturated. Problem for the air parcel is when it reaches around 780 hPa because then it pursues the path of stability.

      But then again I mean what sense does it make to discuss a sounding over the Bay of Bengal ? I mean who would want to know if it rains or or not over there ? I mean I take that back. Soundings over Bay of Bengal do make sense when we have easterly flow. But this is SWM. So only they can explain in this flow direction what the purpose of these soundings are.

      If IMD can provide an early morning sounding over Nungambakkam or some part of Chennai then it is worth commenting.

      • SrikanthK

        I think its an automated process and what ever is the nearest sounding to Chennai is being thrown up

  • Chandramouli, Ambattur

    Good Morning. Good Rains yesterday in and around Chennai and seems to continue today as well 🙂
    Ambattur recorded 44mm from yesterdays spell

    • SrikanthK

      Super Mouli, was in Red Hills when there was continuous lighting to the west, looks like your area got some of the better spells

      • Chandramouli, Ambattur

        Yeah very heavy for 10-15 mins later continued moderately. Overall 35-40mins Good Rains. Lot of ground strikes seen over North yesterday.

    • Ramirao

      Wow! CM :))

    • Sivakumar Sekar

      Thanks bro for ambattur had good rains good

  • barath rakesh

    Lot of rain intensity various of yesterday for chennai

  • barath rakesh

    accu predicted heavy ts in chennai today evening

  • barath rakesh

    Very severe ts warning today vellore,rayalseema,tirupati areas watchout

  • barath rakesh

    Good morning comk bloggers

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    East & Northeast India has been in negative since around 10th June
    Central India seems to be moving back & forth is negative since 3rd of August
    South India is negative since 5th July and going deeper in red
    Northwest India is the only positive zone as of now at 9.5%

    All India has been negative since 2nd August at – 2.9% as of yesterday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c246b365fbc7dfddd332d4ef95a8c16251887bc8365e551f9174d7dd3d8ad158.gif

  • Venkatraman V

    So a welcome weekend ahead .
    With around 6-7 weeks of SW monsoon season left, what is the prediction for Kerala and karnataka (Cauvery catchment area). That is going to be crucial for TN even if we assume NE monsoon to be normal. If possible a separate post during the next few days.

    • SrikanthK

      Things should pick up from next weekend possibly over the West Coast but need to see how long that spell could sustain as some of the models showing weak September contrary to what they were expecting earlier

      • gargara

        Robin Hood mode of the monsoon still on I think – rob from W Pac and give to IO. ISRO RCM model for September 2017 is normal not less or more.

        • SrikanthK

          July was bad for Peninsular India, August looks like at best could be normal if we are very optimistic, its difficult for Monsoon to recover from bad July & August isnt it, one of the two can be bad and there is a scope for recovery but in the past I have analysed data very rarely a recovery has happened with both months going bad

          • gargara

            TN seems OK for August.

            • SrikanthK

              TN is OK no doubts but for the overall dam storage we are dependent on good rains in West Coast

              • gargara

                And as we head into September NEM hype will be hyper – every weather blogger will give their forecast. Already started from yesterday.

                Sometimes I feel if I do not come here NEM will turn out excess.

              • SrikanthK

                Failures are stepping stone to success as long as we learn from our mistakes and correct it no harm in trying. But without the pragmatism we will end up with eggs on our face if we are not careful

              • gargara

                No I mean remember how this summer started ? People were saying El Nino drought etc etc specifically twitterati. Now suddenly SWM has done well and lots of areas of the country has benefited such as Punjab, Haryana (historically drought prone). SI Karnataka and Kerala and parts of Maharastra remain a concern but you need to go back to April and note the pessimism.

  • SrikanthK