Kathiri Heat Wave Scorches North Tamil Nadu

In what could be a watershed moment for the Kathiri Season in Tamil Nadu yesterday saw Chennai have its hottest day in 2017.  While the city observatory in Nungambakkam recorded 42.6°C, hottest day in May since 24th May 2014 the Airport Observatory in Meenambakkam scorched to 43.6°C the highest since May 31 2003 when it recorded 44.8°C.  Incidentally this day on 2003 saw the hottest temperature recorded ever for Chennai Nungambakkam a whopping 45°C.

Yesterday’s temperature abnormality chart pretty much sums up the situation for Chennai with both observatories recording 6 degrees above normal confirming the heat wave conditions that gripped the city yesterday.  Almost all of the coastal places from Delta districts and up the latitude saw temperature 4 / 5°C above normal.  This also sums up the situation in terms of the strength of the Westerlies that is holding sway of the region.

Incidentally Coastal AP along with North Tamil Nadu has been seeing extremely high temperatures with Machilipatnam recording 47.3°C, possibly the highest temperature ever, while Vijayawada, Bapatla & Ongole recorded above 46°C yesterday while many other places like Nellore recorded 45°C

Things though look better for rest of Tamil Nadu with numerical models indicating some marginal respite in terms of temperature while North Tamil Nadu will continue to come under relentless heat attack with possibly another day of Heat Wave conditions prevailing over the districts of Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Pondicherry and the city of Chennai.  Other interior districts in West Tamil Nadu like Salem, Erode, Coimbatore could see today’s temperature a degree or two compared to the last few days.

Going by Numerical Models sea breeze could be expected to influence North Coastal Tamil Nadu after 12:30 PM which possibly indicates a similar day for Chennai & suburbs like yesterday with strong surface level Westerlies expected to blow in response to the off shore trough running along the coast from Andhra to South Tamil Nadu.  This off shore trough is pretty much the trigger for the current heat wave strengthening the Westerlies in the last few days.

Numerical Models Indicate Another 42 / 43°C day for Chennai and suburbs to be hotter by a degree or so with peak heat wave conditions expected to prevail from 10 AM till about 2 PM.  Stay Hydrated, Step out only if necessary Avoid direct exposure to Sun as much as possible.

  • New Post Updated http://wp.me/p6Y3od-1pV

  • Akshay

    Now that we have GFS GEM throwing system for TN, watch Sri undisturbed from these external noise to give a perfect inference when time comes.

    • SrikanthK

      Can someone answer if this is NEM or SWM time, sorry for asking this, am taking a deep sleep like Rip Van Wrinkle. It will give me a better idea

      • Akshay

        I’m also having that doubt. Winter dynamics not ending. Anthony also spoke about climatology wave lengths resemble winter like

  • Ramirao

    GFS (op.) relentlessly picking SHAR express for long-time….

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017051918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ind_33.png

    • SrikanthK

      All the Best

  • SrikanthK

    Very stiff Westerlies today

  • Vision

    Now Raining in Harur

  • Vision

    Heavy rains in Kuppam.

  • ~Prince~
  • Vision

    Raining near Tiruvannamalai.

  • Vision

    43/44 expected in Uthiramerur in next 3 days.

  • SrikanthK

    Sunday looks dicey need to keep a close watch

    • Ramirao

      hmm..on 21st exactly storms are going to repeat just like today 🙂

      • Vision

        So no use to us.

        • Ramirao

          steering winds support then couple of storms can enter 30 km radius..otherwise no

    • Vision

      Agree with you.

  • Vision

    Storm forming over Chengam.

  • Ramirao

    Today it looks less noisy/voicy than yesterday 🙂

    http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/himawari/img/se4/se4_b13_1420.jpg

    • SrikanthK

      This was expected and weekend could be like this

  • SrikanthK

    Another 40 day on the cards tomorrow in all probability

    • Akshay

      So no cool summer for Chennai?

      • SrikanthK

        40 is cool enough dont worry

      • Ramirao

        OMG! greatzschaaaa!

  • Vision

    Raining in Polur.

    • SrikanthK

      Last 3 days its raining all around you

      • Vision

        Raining in Ambur

  • Vision

    Temperature will shoot up again next 3 or 4 days. It seems nungambakkam and Tambaram may escape.

    • Srinivas

      already at 42 and 43. Will go over this?

      • Vision

        Not chennai

        • Vision

          For Uthiramerur

  • SrikanthK

    GFS expecting sea breeze to save us tomorrow

    • Ramirao

      except at one or two places summer season still lacking consistency :))

      • Vision

        Lately Summer seasons are a failure considering its short duration. Normally it is two months frying season.

        • narayanan_ky

          These days weather comes in a parcel..

      • SrikanthK
        • Akshay

          No No. U r wrong. most places are enjoying cool summer 😛

          • SrikanthK

            Oh Okk, thanks for correcting me

          • Ramirao

            really? Oh my Godzsch 😉

      • Akshay

        Yes entire India enjoying cool summer …

        • Ramirao

          really? then u are rocking 😉

          • Akshay

            Yes when entire India enjoying cool summer, we cant expect flooding SWM. 🙂

            • Ramirao

              OMGodzsch ;((

              • Akshay

                Your prediction of cool summer from MJO is spot on 🙂

              • Ramirao

                how was that? but eagerly waiting for Nino vs non-Nino ;))

              • Akshay

                Don’t worry. I’ll fail 🙂

              • Ramirao

                Don’t worry I already failed 😉

              • Akshay

                U already became rockstar

              • Ramirao

                leave it aside..between have u noticed that the walker cell reversal already happened as per NCEP/NCAR?

              • Akshay

                For how many days u did ?

              • Ramirao

                From January 1st to May 17th its still not reversed…but from May 1st to May 17th its showing reversal. why? which one have to consider?

              • Akshay

                May 1-17 intra-seasonal forcing is over EPAC-Atlantic. So E Hemisphere subsidence supposed to happen. Nothing big deal!

              • Ramirao

                OK

              • Ramirao

                From Macrh1st to May17th also showing normal WC.. 🙂

              • sriram

                Sir..why this time mjo in phase 2 gave severe heat wave for NTN/SAP Stretch?..can yu explain..😂

              • Ramirao

                is this rainy season or non-rainy season? whats the position of ITCZ?

              • Ramirao

                each and everything matters…even no SWM onset happened to look at about it 😉

              • sriram

                Yes sir..But GFS picking a disturbance in month end..

              • Ramirao

                BOB-systems are the only mechanism to get the widespread rains before/along with SWM onset…after SWM onset then it could be mostly from SWM-break periods (mostly happens with MJO+ER at phases 2/3).

              • Ramirao

                the widespread rains*

              • sriram

                Yu are great forecaster sir..

              • Ramirao

                how? if anyone reads this they will say big lol 😉

              • sriram

                No no..your predictions are up to the mark rao sir..

              • Ramirao

                the logics in the events might be correct, but predictions going off the mark frequently just like others…its very difficult to decode the mother nature in 100% accuracy :))

              • Akshay

                I don’t like him nowadays. What I like about Rami is his failures. Because he comes with deep analysis when his forecast fails. These days he’s not allowing me to learn with his explanations

              • Ramirao

                lolzzz

              • Akshay

                True. U r not coming with analysis. Kaww with Rao./ I admire you for your analysis and not dodging

    • sriram

      Did GFS predicted that today?

      • SrikanthK

        I ignored GFS because it showed 100% cloud cover

  • Ramirao

    Though Nature’s instincts are scary, but leaves stunning beauty if one takes in proper way 🙂

    https://twitter.com/AMHQ/status/865515963898224642

  • SrikanthK

    25th / 26th looks likely when we will see some good respite

    • Vision

      Rain too?

      • SrikanthK

        Have not checked on the rains

      • SrikanthK

        Next couple of days the rains could be lesser I think

    • Vision

      From Tuesday, it starts to decrease.

  • Vision

    Heavily Raining near Sholinghur and Arani

  • SrikanthK

    Tomorrow the reds look darker than today

    • Srinivas

      In news channel it is said that heat will be more tomorrow and day after.

      • SrikanthK

        Lets see trying to see a couple of models to see consistency

  • Vision
    • Ramirao

      loud laughing?

      • Vision

        Veruppu ethathe

        • SrikanthK

          Nothing to your NE as of now, thats where you will have to look out for

          • Vision

            Or steering wind will be changed

  • SrikanthK

    Thunderstorms moving towards Vellore

  • SrikanthK

    GFS Ensembles slowly moving towards Arabian Sea disturbance

    • Ramirao

      oh..no :((

  • SrikanthK

    Max Temperatures for today in #TamilNady & #Pondicherry. Rest of TN sees some relief while North Coastal areas still sizzling under #Kathri https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61c9d127d91adb6a5f405baa00b11d14437401c7770f4a38b94e867ae16dd2c6.png

    • Ramirao

      Both Thiruthani and Vellore at different level :))

      • Ramirao

        different level*

        • SrikanthK

          The last two days Meenambakkam is hotter than Vellore

  • Ramirao

    Marginal increase in Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) at Indian Ocean in latest update, an indicative of speed in equatorial W/SW ly dynamics (strong CEW)….a recipe for any SWM-systems or strengthening SWM further?

    http://s18.postimg.org/dlgox4t2x/850_mb.gif

  • SrikanthK

    Tiruttani 44.5

  • SrikanthK

    42.1 for Meena

  • Venkit PS

    Sholinganallur, navalur side is cloudy since 5PM thus evening. Now getting cool breeze as well. Is it raining somewhere near by?

    • SrikanthK

      Raining 50 kms away at Arakkonam

  • SrikanthK

    4th straight 40 for Nunga

    • SrikanthK

      Vellore 41.6

  • SrikanthK

    Bapatla scores second straight 46

    • SrikanthK

      Sorry third straight 46

  • SrikanthK

    Sums up the last few days of #heatwave for #TamilNadu & Coastal #Andhrapradesh. Places near #Chennai & #Vijayawada seeing highest variances https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03be91843e4fc85aa65c654cdbe8cc39b40345081f87f9701d0fdcb9b316a827.png

    • Harish Kumar

      So when can some respite and rains are expected?

    • narayanan_ky

      Unfortunately these areas have to bear the brunt of heat for swm monsoon to set pushing in from West..

  • SrikanthK

    Partially cloudy skies have increased the uncomfort factor

    • narayanan_ky

      Suburbs windy and comfortable no qualms for today

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus There you go. After a year, Warm anomalies getting eroded in off-equator EPAC. It looks Oceanic Rossby wave on either side of equator is in action.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

    • Akshay

      Initialization conditions with consistent changing PAC Ocean temps? wow. another round !

  • Vision

    Raining near Tiruvallur

    • SrikanthK

      Good rains near Arakkonam as well

  • Akshay
    • SrikanthK

      This one shows negative anomaly for Kerala isnt it?

      • Akshay

        SS!

        • Ramirao

          how its possible with parallel +ve anomaly beside of it that too along SWM giant-west coast? This means its an “onshore trough” that running all along west-coast, a typical signature of SWM season? we need to be careful in decoding any anomalies :))

          • Ramirao

            South Kerala is in -ve anomaly during SWM since very very long back, not worrying about it 🙂

            • Ramirao

              in -ve anomaly during SWM*

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus GFS basically forming a burst of North-easterlies into our basin from East Asia & thereby forming a convergence zone around S Bay which is influencing the pattern for TamilNadu.

    ECMWF disagrees with this. This NE flow from Asia tied to Pacific Jet extension = Nino like. The magnitude of this forcing remains weak in EPS.

    • SrikanthK

      Take 48 hours at a time…take 48 hours at a time

      • Ramirao

        lol ;))

  • narayanan_ky

    I feel our peak for the year has been attained
    Nunga – 42.6 and Meena -43.6

    • Vision

      I too feel so.

      • Vision

        But Meenambakkam, little doubt.

        • narayanan_ky

          Until next week 41 is possible

    • SrikanthK

      Low 40s may continue

      • sudar san

        Is above 40 over for suburbs

  • SrikanthK

    Bapatla is slightly better today 45.6 at 14:30 hrs compared to 46.2 yesterday

  • Akshay

    The depith in westerlies lacking in Global model data. Dry flow at 700hpa around May 28-June 1

    • SrikanthK

      You mean its Northwesterly rather than Southwesterly?

      • Akshay

        SS. Hoping to pick up soon!

        • SrikanthK

          Anyways the Findlater Jet is a LLJ so the occasional NW winds at 700hPa does not make things too bad.

          • Akshay

            But will IMD declare onset?

            • SrikanthK

              The is some bit of Easterlies still adjusting around month end let’s see if they change in until coming runs

              • Akshay

                That’s mostly tied to Jet extension we’ve been seeing. Late season winter dynamics in play. I don’t know when normalcy will resume.

  • Harish Kumar

    Have we seen the highest for the day (below 40 still).. RH is 40+%

    • SrikanthK

      Yes we have seen the peak already no more increase possible

      • Vision

        Rain changed temperatures equation

  • narayanan_ky

    It was hot in suburbs today but definitely better than yesterday was able to go for a walk without breaking sweat….

  • SrikanthK

    ECMWF expecting twin system to drive monsoon onset Clear ER influence seen https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ac71da72fc377db511782e80b22e0de7fe4024eab2ba88a1efe2ea6ca3b601e.png

    • ~Prince~

      Then the system expected to come towards north TN ?? Going away??

      • SrikanthK

        Two different scenarios from two different models when ER influence is there there will be multiple area of development which could give different scenarios let’s wait and see

        • ~Prince~

          Hmm

  • Lakshmi Gopal

    I am traveling in an auto right now. Feel like I am driving through an oven. Nostrils burning.
    A downpour would be much appreciated.

    Every juice shop along my way is overcrowded.

    • SrikanthK

      Southern parts of city and suburbs still to get sea breeze

      • Lakshmi Gopal

        That, and the heat reflected off the tar roads and given out by vehicles…

  • ~Prince~

    42 here😋

    • Arun Raja A Kumaraswamy

      At airport?

    • SrikanthK

      Airport Metar showing 42

  • SrikanthK

    Airport will continue its 40+ streak

    • Leo Michaelraj

      so Sea breeze has not yet reached there

      • SrikanthK

        Not yet reached there

  • Harish Kumar

    Surprise indeed, now nungambakkam shows 36.5 with RH 43%

  • SrikanthK

    What a surprise at 11:30 Meenambakkam is lower than Nungambakkam 39.0 degrees

    • Harish Kumar

      Will it be a below 42 day?

      • SrikanthK

        Around 40 day

    • narayanan_ky

      Excepted as last night was cooler…June/july I feel Airport is more comfortable as TS in night helps lower night temps which doesn’t happen in core city

  • SrikanthK

    After peaking at 39.8 as of 11:30 AM, now sea breeze sets in city areas of #Chennai. What a #Great Escape from #Heatwave. Suburbs still hot https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb44a521467d4ae31f78c68b27aff02def99ddd165137c6fedaa595b2051d47f.png

  • Leo Michaelraj

    yep Sea breeze has came to stop the train no. MAS 42.6

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Humidity increasing sign of Sea breeze max temp.since 39.6’C

  • SrikanthK

    Radar showing sea breeze nature’s twist. We are escape

    • sriram

      Temp reducing..-10.68c/hr..

      • SrikanthK

        Sea Breeze in fortunately

        • sriram

          Somewhat strong too..

          • SrikanthK

            Could trigger some interior stroms

      • Rakesh Pandya Pursawakkam

        -10.68℃ ???

        • SrikanthK

          If it drops .5 degrees in two minutes then the trend will show this high drop Rakeshji

  • SrikanthK

    Train no. MAS 42.6 is currently running late by 30 minutes. Inconvenience caused is deeply regretted.

    • Akshay

      😛

    • r2d2

      Hope MAS 42.6 doesn’t reach or overshoot its destination. Vazhilaye orama breakdown aanalum seri.

    • No problem, inconvenience is most appreciated

    • Srinivas

      thanni tanker anuppa sonna neruppa vandiya yaruyya anuppuchadhu? edhula vera late’am.

      • SrikanthK

        Coding error Boss…

  • Harish Kumar

    Nungambakkam yet to hit 39….(38.8)

    • SrikanthK

      Just touched 39.2

  • SrikanthK

    So the heat wave continues to run 30 minutes delayed compared to yesterday

    • Harish Kumar

      Hopefully it stays a degree lesser than yesterday.

      • SrikanthK

        Yes will be good for everyone

  • Vision

    Early Storms will be good.

  • Harish Kumar

    Hi GM. Today’s post has some lesser red spots which is pleasing to the Eyes though lighter red is still concerning

    • SrikanthK

      Lighter red means normal par for course most of the days our temperatures are slightly above normal

  • SrikanthK

    Yesterday by ten thirty we touched 40

  • SrikanthK

    Airport Metar at 38

  • Vision

    Rain chance for Uthiramerur today too.

  • SrikanthK

    Winds slowly picking up, temperature will slowly raise, we are about 30 minutes slower compared to yesterday. Sea Breeze could be slightly delayed compared to yesterday we need to see how the balance works out

  • SrikanthK

    Trending a degree lower than yesterday fortunately

    • Vision

      Expected

      • SrikanthK

        End result may not be very different

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    ECMWF spinning a system in Arabian where as GFS in Bay

    • Ramirao

      South and North poles never meets👍😀

    • SrikanthK

      Ensembles have the answer

  • ~Prince~

    A pressure drop of 975 MB system https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4064db16d29564b5f904a97436532ce53d141e17b3adaaed73871e0a622e825a.png forming near Chennai on may last week but not so consistent in it lets hope best

    • SrikanthK

      Start Music

      • Akshay

        We need a system so that it can help in westerlies gaining latitude!

        • SrikanthK

          If the Arabian sea system does not form then Westerlies will surely help themselves

  • SrikanthK
  • Ramirao

    Today need to be alert between Pondicherry and Delta :))

  • Malakrishnasamy

    What is the effect of westerlies on the temperature of west TN.
    As a resident of Coimbatore ,we used to enjoy winds from the ghats of nilgiris.
    It actually subsided the effect of temp. But is the same westerlies increases the temp in rest of TN?

    • SrikanthK

      Yes the Westerlies especially from NW bring the heat from Rayalaseema region over North TN hence the increase in temperatures

  • Ramirao

    As expected the Indian Ocean convection coming out of the NPAC’s eastward jet extension’s influence to set up much awaiting Monsoonal Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO in phase 2) #SWM strengthening…

    Pacific:
    http://s1.postimg.org/w98gwz4xb/NPAC.gif

    Indian Ocean:
    http://s3.postimg.org/3liiejl3n/image.gif

  • SrikanthK

    Humidity lower than yesterday something to watch out for

    • Malakrishnasamy

      Good morning.
      What is the rainfall figures of yesterday?
      Is it widespread. Did Chennai got something out of luck?

  • SrikanthK

    We are starting on a lower base today so hopefully will give us some respite though temperatures have started to pick up now

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    If we see ER impact on MJO then possibly the best conditions will stick to lower latitudes

    • Ramirao

      wow…super 🙂

  • SrikanthK

    Some models are indicating late afternoon rains for suburbs of Chennai lets see if it materializes

  • SrikanthK

    The operational model of GFS is expecting cloudy conditions to prevail over most parts of TN and keeping temperatures under check

  • SrikanthK

    A few ensembles of GFS are developing some disturbance in Bay while few more are developing in Arabian Sea with a couple of days lag

    • SrikanthK

      ECMWF in the meanwhile continues to show probability for both side of Indian Sub Continent with Bay shading a tad more than Arabian Sea though it expects a weak disturbance

  • Srinivas

    got this in whatsapp: 2015 – thuvaichadhu (chennai floods), 2016 – kaya pottadhu (Vardah puyal), 2017 – Isthri poduthu (Heat)

    • SrikanthK

      Then next year we will all be dressed neat and clean

      • Sainath

        Well said