Heat Wave Alert for North Tamil Nadu

Intense Heat Wave Conditions have gripped large parts of Tamil Nadu with the Northern parts of the state suffering more under the relentless afternoon Sun.  While some places like Chennai had a marginal respite in the form of slight reduction of temperatures places like Tiruttani recorded 45.5°C in what is likely to be the first 45 degrees for a place in Tamil Nadu in many years.  Things dont look any better with numerical model outputs indicating strengthening Westerlies under the influence of the trough running along the East Coast of Peninsular India from Andhra Pradesh to South Coastal Tamil Nadu

Due to unfavorable wind pattern we are likely to see most of the places come firmly under the grip of Northwesterly Winds and less influence of Sea Breeze till late afternoon.  While Models indicate the coastal areas to see some impact by the sea breeze after 1 PM it is likely to be weak and possibly make things worse for a very hot and humid evening.

In order to provide a clearer picture on how things would like to pan out today we have put out a temperature chart along with peak heat wave period so that our regular observers can take adequate precautions.  We have given an indicative max temperature band taking into account what Models are estimating and possible Heat Island Effect as well in urban areas.  There could be a slight possibility that we could have been a tad conservative on the heat front, this is on account of not wanting to create too much panic.

Nevertheless going by how models are indicating things to evolve today it is going to be a day of intense heat wave for North Tamil Nadu with no escape for even places like Chennai.  It is a fair possibility today Chennai could see one of the hottest days in the past decade if the pattern of actual temperatures being a couple of degrees higher compared to model estimates.  Models are indicating Humidity to be around 30 – 35% once again today indicating the possible dryness in conditions.

Stay Safe, Keep Drinking Water, Avoid going out between 11:00 AM & 3:00 PM unless and until it is an emergency / absolute necessity for you.

  • New Post Updated http://wp.me/p6Y3od-1pK

  • SrikanthK

    How many have good feeling for today??

    • Lakshmi Gopal

      Depends on what you mean by good feeling. I awoke sweating. It’s definitely going to be a sweltering day.

      • SrikanthK

        The minimum did not go below 31.8 today

        • As someone had rightly said here couple of days back. Its not the high temps but the low minimums which is the trouble maker.

    • Feelings hot and sweaty for today

    • Srinivas

      Day time is spent in office with AC on. Outside, Heat is getting into my head. Will be happy to think and act straight. The way you have asked – it seems to suggest – don’t become loonies. Anyways, we will wait for your RED markers.

  • Leo Michaelraj

    still the temp. is around 33’C which is higher than yesterday

    • SrikanthK

      It’s 32 even now

  • Vision

    Uthiramerur 34 now

  • Vision

    Need not to say Bangalore will get rains tomorrow. Heavier too.

  • Vision

    Tomorrow morning Rain postponed to afternoon /evening

    • ~Prince~

      Chennai???

      • Vision

        For Uthiramerur. I have no idea for Chennai.

  • Vision

    Raining between Mettur and Salem

  • Vision

    Again in Bangalore

    • SrikanthK

      76/mm hour rain rate in some places

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus next week see if we can get NE winds at some point!

  • SrikanthK
    • Akshay

      We still don’t have a true MJO signal. W’ere seeing just eastward moving noise event. Don’t know when we will have a true signal!

      • sriram

        So no impact for us from upcoming mjo event?

        • Akshay

          This may not have significant impact on Monsoon progression further until large scale process can change over Indian Ocean!

    • Ramirao

      Oh…no :((

  • SrikanthK

    Nunga is 33.3 and the trend is 0 degrees. Cant get any better than this

  • SrikanthK

    @disqus_Iphvppv6Hy:disqus was talking about monsoon stalling off the coast.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4625f41871936c7957c99b7f9593465fef999cfdb7ebf88f417719fc0df97aa0.png

    • Ramirao

      both sides??

  • Vision

    Storm teases Polur.

    • SrikanthK

      So near yet so far for you

      • Vision

        It is not moving

  • Vision

    Heavy rains near Namakkal

    • Vision

      And Karur.

  • Akshay
    • Leo Michaelraj

      Looks very good for Chennai

      • Akshay

        For heat & not for rain

        • Leo Michaelraj

          what about the second chart low pressure near Chennai

          • Akshay

            Likely Heat low

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus Cyclone across SE Asia East of Taiwan forming from the convergence zone of E Asia High pressure, and Monsoon westerlies. This will likely keep a check on South-westerly flow over our basin.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/05/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-233.15,27.37,648/loc=131.129,24.471

    • Akshay

      This is basically non-tropical!

      • SrikanthK

        You will learn something new soon https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c614a69a828d9d20ece80f8b0f5cf7655819671b80af0d909b68a7842422d1d.png

        We will continue this discussion next week

        • Akshay

          I think at least brief respite should be seen.

          • SrikanthK

            Don’t be suprised if May sees atleast 10 days of 40

            • Akshay

              Definitely not. Also don’t be surprised if Monsoon struggles to move inland.

            • narayanan_ky

              10 days for sure Meena will have 40 days in may….nunga 7 to 8

              • SrikanthK

                Meena might score 40 for almost every other day from now till month end I think

              • Akshay

                Here no sea breeze effect. Only city gets majority of the time even under worse hot conditions.

              • narayanan_ky

                April also 100f almost every day….one deadly summer so far

    • Ramirao

      If so what’s the genesis point for Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO)? I think we need to see the Mei-Yu front in presence of jet-extension and in the absence of jet extension

      • Akshay

        U r asking all detailed questions in sleep time!

        • Ramirao

          This is very important question…so take ur own time…no hurries :))

  • Akshay
    • Akshay

      Drought right over coastal TN.

      • Leo Michaelraj

        Is the above forecast condition for coastal TN will persist through the SWM season

  • Ramirao

    It looks SWM rushing towards Kerala even earlier date to 30th May (IMD expected date). Any idea from anyone?

    • Ramirao

      SWM rushing towards Kerala*

  • SrikanthK

    Even Yesterday was better compared to today

    • sriram

      Yes i also feel the same..today its horrible..still 33.4c..koduma

      • SrikanthK

        Just wait and watch a couple of days within this week we might see close to 37 even around sunset

        • Akshay

          Srikanth but I think from next week sea breeze should find easy gate pass compared to this week. Passage of High pressure over E Asia/Jet extension will keep Monsoon westerlies towards Maritime-WP Oceans.

          • SrikanthK

            I don’t know am not an expert I could be wrong also

  • Ramirao

    Akshay, can you decode the below diagram? If mid-latitude trough parking at head Arabian Sea…with flanking UACs either side of peninsular seas, do you expecting persistent heat wave for Chennai or any interior TN?

    • Ramirao

      decode*

    • Akshay

      The upper-level circulation over NW India, & resultant flanking N-S trough has increased the North-westerly flow. Compare dynamics aloft/surface map to see how this pattern is operating.

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus Morning spoke about upper-level circulation here comes jnmet!
    https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/864807044620091392

    • Ramirao

      But few are expecting non stop heat wave for Chennai?🙈

      • narayanan_ky

        Atleast 1 more week it will be like this only…..

      • SrikanthK

        Even Jason does not expect relief from heat for Chennai

        • Ramirao

          What’s the meaning of little relief?

          • SrikanthK

            Go through your grammar books possibly you will understand that phrase better

            • Ramirao

              No need grammar…if one understands the above diagram then no one will expect non-stop heat wave conditions…instead of grammar we need to decode the weather patterns…

              • Ramirao

                I clearly emphasized 2017-pre SWM season is not suitable for those who expecting non-stop heat-wave conditions. Better luck for 2018-pre SWM season👍

              • Akshay

                1 week is enough to get roasted.

              • SrikanthK

                Good luck I hope your weather inference is not as good as your grammar inference

              • Ramirao

                Thx…in the mean time still you are expecting delayed SWM?

              • SrikanthK

                We will see how good or bad SWM Onset is when it happens. I have enough patience in the world

              • Ramirao

                But innocent farmers don’t have that much patience like you..they need very early preparations to make sowing…sowing the seeds not like making weather inferences 😀

              • SrikanthK

                Those who are happy with my forecasts will know when they can expect something, no issues about it. No one is expecting a Southwest Monsoon onset forecast from this blog, in case you are in a hurry please go ahead by any means

              • Ramirao

                You told me to alert on SWM onset…so keeping this discussion…otherwise no issues 😀

              • Ramirao

                Till now I didn’t heard any +ve thing from SWM onset from ur side even after IMD set the date for 30th May.😀

              • SrikanthK

                If IMD says that it has to happen no doubts about it, you can inform the farmers based on that

              • Ramirao

                Ok..Thanks Sri..Now I will call and alert my native farmers👍😀

      • Akshay

        Next week extreme heat should subside. But still considering time of year it could be seasonally hot, but sea breeze cam make a come back a bit easier!

  • SrikanthK

    Airport Metar still showing 35

    • narayanan_ky

      Now good breeze started​ blowing it will reduce

  • SrikanthK

    OMG temp increasing

  • SrikanthK

    NW Interiors getting super rains around Kgiri

  • narayanan_ky

    Chennai location shifted to middle East….36 degrees still hot winds blowing

    • SrikanthK

      33.4 even now, possibly next couple of hours as well

      • Rakesh Pandya Pursawakkam

        So uncomfortable night on the card

        • narayanan_ky

          Outside is better than inside as radiation will be there from walls and ceiling

  • Vigneshwar Narayanan

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus
    I seem to remember N IO SSTs were cooler in Nov-Dec 2016. Was it one of the reasons for NEM failure

    • SrikanthK

      Could be one of the reasons

    • Akshay

      One of the reasons but the Pacific played a spoil sport basically!

      • Ramirao

        Sooper👍👏

  • Vision

    Popup over Trichi

  • SrikanthK

    #Heatwave continues for North #TamilNadu, as #Pondicherry sees hottest day since 2012. #Chennai Airport manages hotter day than yesterday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63126692384d568006d6b48565c13b6612f34d2ba987448fa26f3fe64bce9d98.png

  • Vision
  • Vision

    Heavily raining near Tindivanam

    • SrikanthK

      Gingee should be getting as well

  • SrikanthK

    Tiruttani 44 max, 42 at 5:30 in the evening

  • Vision

    Raining near Perambulur

    • Vision

      And vaniyambadi

    • SrikanthK

      That belt along with parts of Salem is in line for some rains

  • SrikanthK

    Another south Bangalore special day today by the look of it

  • SrikanthK

    A couple of models expecting tomorrow afternoon rains for Chennai nothing much but something like today morning

  • sudar san

    Any respite frm heat in the weekend?

    • SrikanthK

      Looks less likely as things stand

    • Akshay

      Weekend looks to be more hotter. Possibly from 23rd or 22nd should get respite from extreme heat

  • Akshay

    The Pacific circulation has been pretty much stationery since February with main players of sub-tropical anticyclones, North Pacific Low, & Polar High with literally reduced IO convection.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3836363f698a45094d4d8df7abbcdfc223cd9bb8d76f953947e7606cf07964ec.png

  • Akshay

    @pypkmsrikanth:disqus There has to be some change that has to happen after this week (Jet extension) as we proceed to Monsoon season.

    The Pacific circulation has been more stationery since February MJO pulse. Let’s see how IO responds post this Jet extension.

    This is bit tricky to predict!

    • SrikanthK

      Every pulse is trying something but Pacific seems to have a mind of its own. May middle no disturbance of worth so far in Pacific

  • Vision

    If not now, I expect rain tomorrow morning. Let us see.

  • Vision

    Raining in Whitefield in Bangalore?

    • SrikanthK

      Some parts of Central Bangalore getting rains closer to HAL Airport

      • Vision

        They are blessed.

  • SrikanthK
  • Vision

    Popup moving away

    • SrikanthK

      Any idea which level of wind is guiding it did you try to correlate

      • Vision

        I only follow radar, weather readings. I am very much reluctant to go further.

  • Akshay
    • SrikanthK

      Already posted ma you are late

      • Akshay

        🙁

  • SrikanthK

    For 3rd consecutive day #Heatwave Warning from IMD, Isolated places in 24 districts to see heat wave conditions in #TamilNadu & #Pondicherry https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7aa808b2f516e3250a60d1b3f423ca885928a07c61cb7f2811d6c8e64460b301.png

  • Vision

    Popup over Ambur.

    • SrikanthK

      Some parts of Vellore getting rains

      • Vision

        Ambur Also.

    • Vision

      And chinnasalem

  • ~Prince~

    Any rain in porur

  • Vision

    Raining near Arani

    • SrikanthK

      Not very far away from your place isnt it

      • Vision

        As you told, wind direction is important.

  • SrikanthK

    Kalavai IMD AWS 42.2, ERODE ISRo 42.5

    • Malakrishnasamy

      Erode is burning today..

      • SrikanthK

        Was wondering if it was so hot because the ISRO AWS was reporting 42.5 at 2:30

        • Malakrishnasamy

          Comparatively hotter than yesterday..

          now we are enjoying a small passing shower.

  • SrikanthK

    Tiruttani Agro 43.9, Tiruvallur Agro 42.5

  • SrikanthK

    Ongole 43.6 at 2:30, no respite at all

    • SrikanthK

      Tirupati 42.4 at 2:30

  • SrikanthK

    Temperature has dropped and then raised again

  • SrikanthK
    • SrikanthK

      No Expert though would have been happier if they had used Vaanilai Aarvalar

      • Akshay

        Take out white beard. You’ll look 20s

        • SrikanthK

          In fact after almost 2 years I started having a French beard a week or so back

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    Continuing with theme of textbook meteorology examples tonight, here is the mei-yu front in eastern Asia today as monsoon season gears up.

    https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/864753666624016384

    • Ramirao

      It’s Akhi’s favorite front 👍👏😀

    • SrikanthK

      Anthony is super cool with his visual styles

  • ~Prince~

    42 here again …

  • Leo Michaelraj

    Temperature is still holding around 35’C

    • SrikanthK

      Better than yesterday when it was 37 till almost 5

  • Vision

    Can we expect rains tomorrow morning?

    • SrikanthK

      If the off shore trough exits like today then yes some chance

  • Leo Michaelraj

    what a Sea breeze effect temp. dropped by 4 degrees now @ 35.6

  • Leo Michaelraj

    IMD announces that SWM to hit Kerala on 30th May which is two days earlier than normal onset

  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    Today forecast is not an epic failure

    • SrikanthK

      The morning thunderstorms changed the scenario otherwise the topic would have been on the mark

  • SrikanthK

    Airport Metar touched 42

  • SrikanthK

    Two degrees drop in ten minutes

    • Venkit PS

      Looks like same here. More rains in the evening?

  • ~Prince~
  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    Just missed magical 40 as easterlies have taken up their role

    • SrikanthK

      Its still oscillating between Westerlies & Easterlies Selva

    • SrikanthK

      Radar shows sea breeze is stronger than yesterday

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    Radar showing sea breeze so respite could be coming soon

  • Lakshmi Gopal

    Hot air.

    • SrikanthK

      Could have been lot worse if the thunderstorms did not happen in the morning

  • SrikanthK

    Meenambakkam 38.4 at 11:30, 2 degrees lower than yesterday

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    Tiruttani Agro 41.8 at 11 AM

  • SrikanthK

    39.2 Max now in Nunga

  • SrikanthK

    37.3 now we may end up with 40 at this rate

    • Still actually very bearable.. Temp looks like just a number today.

      • SrikanthK

        Yes because it’s not dry

      • Venkit PS

        Here in Sholinganallur I personally feel we are all in a Sauna! Ofcourse , there is good enough sea breeze and staying inside the house makes a difference . Bit out side temperature is easily 38++

  • Gopal R S

    Its Bright Day @ Chembarambakkam Area

    • SrikanthK

      Could be a very hot day also

  • SrikanthK

    35 now

  • SrikanthK

    Four degrees increase rate

  • SrikanthK
  • SrikanthK

    Northern Suburbs of #Chennai like Ponneri / Gummidipoondi getting some #rains now, will Chennai get lucky once again for another spell https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/889d00e428c4f46be8527d1c0aa6c6563ff31f10bb3bcd108ac5745cc3688c99.gif

    • Venkit PS

      Sir South Chennai pakkam konjam antha clouds thalli vidungo

      • SrikanthK

        Sooriyane cloudsa thalli vitutaaru

  • SrikanthK

    Winds back to NW – Normalcy returning

    • Akshay

      What models forecasting about sea breeze today ?

      • SrikanthK

        The original forecasts were around 1 PM, need to see if based on the revised IC the output changes in the 00Z run

  • Vision

    Today is another rainy day for Bangalore.

    • SrikanthK

      How is it at your place cloudy?

      • Vision

        Clear

        • SrikanthK

          So hot day ahead

          • Vision

            39now

            • Vision

              43 expected

              • SrikanthK

                Yes around that region with not much sea breeze support

  • SrikanthK

    Temp has climbed to 32 in no timer

  • sriram cr
    • SrikanthK

      ISRO possibly has talked about Monsoon onset

  • Akshay

    There’s strong long wave flow from NW India to Pacific with strong upper-level circulation prevailing over NW India & E Asia with MJO oriented convection is right more symmetrical about equator.

    So once this upper-level wave exits over India & the N-S trough oriented trough exits, extreme heat will subside across coastal Tamil Nadu. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64101c2ef5e87334d971e23372b7646816d95b9a9e4e495f7635912360e0a89a.gif

    • Akshay

      This is because with another Jet extension down the road awaiting, the Monsoon westerlies will not have sig. impact on temperatures and this moisture will be sucked by the active sub-tropical Jet and we could see few bursts of easterlies coming into picture
      !

    • SrikanthK

      When do you think that is likely to happen

      • Akshay

        Jet extension happening this weekend. So around next week post 23rd or 24th we should see reduction in extreme heat. Even coastal AP can see drop in extreme heat and possibly a degree below or so.

  • SrikanthK

    Looks like Delhi also has got some trace rain today after a blistering day yesterday

  • Leo Michaelraj

    will the cloudy conditions keep the temperature under check

  • SrikanthK

    .3 mm rains in Anna Nagar

  • Vision

    Chennai rains. Skymet spot on.

  • Vision

    April 2017 was 2nd warmest April in 137 years: Nasa

  • SrikanthK
  • Selvakumar(Raijin)

    With 5 degrees lesser than sterday, will Chennai make a push towards magical 40?

    • SrikanthK

      No hattrick 40 looks unlikely

  • SrikanthK

    Most of the rain bands have passed away

    • Leo Michaelraj

      so cloudy conditions to remain or it will clear

  • SrikanthK

    Humidity will increase now once the rains pass away

  • SrikanthK

    Steady drizzle here at Anna Nagar

  • Decent rains and super rumbles here

  • Leo Michaelraj

    now slowed down to light rains here

  • Going on hearing rumbles.. Areas closer to coast should be receiving some good rains.

    • Venkit PS

      No rains nor drizzles in Sholinganallur

      • Venkit PS

        Just heard it is raining near Neelankarai . Your right Sailesh

  • Leo Michaelraj

    medium rains here

  • Wish storms could have flanked but nonetheless this is a welcome change

    • SrikanthK

      For a change at least we can feel happy our post was completely wrong

      • Haha that too

      • Ramirao

        lol

      • Srinivas

        so what to expect for the day? I don’t like cloud cover. Feels like being inside a pressure cooker with the cloud being the lid. Feeling of being boiled. Don’t ask if I liked being roasted under the Sun.

        • SrikanthK

          Once this thunderstorm passes away we will be closer to normal around 36 / 37 possibly

  • SrikanthK

    Storms just kissing the coast so far

    • Ramirao

      Chennai teasers still continuing…so very big show will be there for sure in near future prior to SWM-onset :))

      • SrikanthK

        There is nothing new about Chennai getting close to rains every year it happens

        • Ramirao

          at the same time its too common to get at least one big TS prior/with SWM onset 🙂

          • Ramirao

            prior/with SWM onset*

  • SrikanthK

    One small spot to the West of Red Hills

  • SrikanthK

    Did I hear Thunders Rumble

    • Sudhir

      I heard them in Koyambedu

    • Ramirao

      AAMA :))

    • SrikanthK

      Slowly loosing intensity

  • Ramirao

    We propose something…but Nature trying to dispose everything 🙁

    https://twitter.com/AndhraW/status/863787069839220736

  • Leo Michaelraj

    little drizzle here

  • SrikanthK

    Wind from SE indicating the role thunderstorms are playing

    • Ramirao

      means?

  • SrikanthK

    Anna Nagar saw squally weather about 10 minutes back with few drops of drizzle

  • Lakshmi Gopal

    Windy and cloudy at IIT. Any chance of rain?

    • Leo Michaelraj

      no chance of rains

    • SrikanthK

      Closer to coast fair chance of some spells of rains

  • Ramirao

    The signs of HEAT EXHAUSTION or HEAT/SUN STROKE… Protect yourself and Stay hydrated…

    CAUTION:
    please don’t call to the number mentioned in the below tweet. Call to local emergency number under adverse health conditions arising from heat/sun-stroke.

    https://twitter.com/gaskywarnspoter/status/864307023822901252

  • Leo Michaelraj

    so it’s going to be a hottest day of the year for Chennai today according to the post

    • SrikanthK

      But reality could be completely different going by how things are

  • jeganatharaja

    Can we expect any further premonsoon rains for STN?

    • SrikanthK

      Models indicating at least one good spell for Palani Hills and the Western Ghats near Rajapalayam so fair chance

      • Ramirao

        Sri, will it happens when east-west shear zone takes place?

        • SrikanthK

          Not sure if this year we might have a east – west shear zone

  • SrikanthK

    At 600 mts ASL the winds are 30 knots Westerlies over Chennai DWR

  • SrikanthK

    Storms moving down along the sea possibly

  • Ramirao

    If SWM onset happens by May 30th (2 days earlier), then it will be matching with similar early onset dates back to 2011 (SWM onset taken by May 29-30)….Incidentally in 2011 both SWM & NEM recorded normal, where 2017 too on the prospects of receiving normal SWM & NEM only after 2011 🙂

    IMD: The southwest monsoon onset over Kerala in this year is likely to be close to the normal date. It is likely to set over Kerala on 30th May with a model error of ± 4 days.

  • SrikanthK

    Thunderstorms moving closer to Chennai

  • SrikanthK

    When I changed the default color coding for temperature charts never expected South India will cross 48 degrees https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea67d91eb1050c24b232d041a1ad875bfde6ec1676b742fcf90c7e4967620894.jpg

  • SrikanthK

    The lone ranger, the Northeast of Chennai thunderstorms rest of Peninsular India looks more normal with possibly Coastal AP going to see another scorching day

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c93bad112ac61724468cc6da3d8f438d6ffac40722b33c081a6fdfe69280d9e.jpg

  • SrikanthK

    At least 2 of the models have picked up today morning’s cloud cover fairly well

    • Ramirao

      What are those two Sri?

  • Ramirao

    Every 1 day break between 2 days is very good from surviving persistent heat-wave conditions 🙂

  • Ramirao

    Recipe for thunderstorms and main ingredients.

    https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/864626975192752128

  • Ramirao

    The MJO is aiding in the organization of tropical convection over the Indian Ocean today!!

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864565205476495361

  • SrikanthK

    Parts of Chennai receiving drizzle thanks to some super intense storms to our NE, steering winds not favorable for us by the look of it

    • Ramirao

      Then Chennai can see >40 oC today?

      • SrikanthK

        I dont know I might be wrong with the post also, am not the Weather God isnt it

        • Ramirao

          haha…its not like that I meant :))

    • Venkit PS

      Which part? Once again poonamallee side?

      • SrikanthK

        Its to our NE so may be some Northern suburbs like Ponneri could get lucky

        • Venkit PS

          South kku sangu thaan nnu surukki sollunge

          • SrikanthK

            Close to the coast some passing showers may happen you never know

            • Venkit PS

              Let’s hope for the best then. Thank you.